PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Dolphins (4-11) at Patriots (12-3), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Patriots by 16

Outlook: The Patriots must win (or hope for an unlikely Chiefs loss) to secure the No. 2 AFC seed and a first-round bye. Can Miami and Brian Flores play spoiler in Foxborough? Um, well, no. Miami hasn’t won at New England in 11 years, and Patriots have won 22 of their past 23 at home overall.

Prediction: Patriots, 31-13

GAME OF THE WEEK

49ers (12-3) at Seahawks (11-4), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Spread: 49ers by 3 1/2

Outlook: San Francisco clinches the No. 1 seed with a win, but tumbles to a wild-card spot with a loss. Seattle takes the division with a win and could earn a bye or even the No. 1 seed. Give us Russell Wilson and the home field in an upset.

Prediction: Seahawks 24-23.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Titans (8-7) at Texans (10-5), 4:25 p.m.

Spread: Titans by 3 1/2

Outlook: The Titans and Ryan Tannehill make the playoffs with a win, or if Pittsburgh and Indy both lose. The Texans have the No. 4 seed sewn up but could climb to No. 3 with a win and a Chiefs loss. Stakes are more dramatic for Tennessee, but I still lean Houston, with the home field and with Deshaun Watson.

Prediction: Texans 27-23.

OTHER GAMES

• At Bills (10-5, -1 1/2) over Jets (6-9), 19-10: Buffalo is locked into the No. 5 seed. Still like that big defense over a Jets team that is 1-6 on road and on a 2-10 skid within the AFC East.

• At Bengals (1-14, +2 1/2) over Browns (6-9), 24-20: The Benglas have clinched overall No. 1 draft pick and has no reason to lose. So why not win at home?

• Packers (12-3, -121/2) over At Lions (3-11-1), 30-10: Green Bay gets no worse than the No. 2 seed and a bye with win, and could still reach the top spot. Aaron Rodgers rolls.

• At Chiefs (11-4, -9) over Chargers (5-10), 28-16: The Chiefs get the No. 2 seed/bye with a win or a Patriots loss. In other words, they need to win this.

• At Vikings (10-5, -1) over Bears (7-8), 20-16: Minnesota is locked into the No. 6 seed. Hence the near-pick ’em spread. Still like the Vikes at home.

• At Broncos (6-9, -31/2) over Raiders (7-8), 19-17: The Raiders can sneak into the playoffs with a win and lots of help, but I still lean on Denver at home.

• Falcons (6-9, +1) over At Buccaneers (7-8), 27-24: Atlanta has won three straight and five of seven. Jameis Winston is hobbled (thumb, knee) and might be missing two Pro Bowl wideouts.

• Saints (12-3, -13) over At Panthers (5-10), 38-12: The Saints must win to be in play for the No. 2 seed and a bye, and an outside shot at No. 1 and will go all out against a team that’s dropped seven straight.

• At Cowboys (7-8, -11) over Washington (3-12), 24-16: Sad Dallas must win and have Philly lose at the Giants to luck into NFC East crown and playoffs. Probably too late for Jason Garrett either way.

• At Rams (8-7, -7) over Cardinals (5-9-1), 27-17: The Rams, eliminated, will be best team not in playoffs, while the Cards may be without QB Kyler Murray (hamstring).

• Eagles (8-7, -41/2) over At Giants (4-11), 27-20: The Eagles clinch the division and a playoff berth with a win – or Dallas loss. Tight end Zach Ertz (ribs) is out, but Philly has won 10 of 12 trips to play the Giants.

• Colts (7-8, -31/2) over At Jaguars (5-10), 21-16: I like Indy’s defense against a banged up Gardner Minshew. Especially with Leonard Fourette also iffy to play.

• At Ravens (13-2, +2) over Steelers (8-7), 20-17: Baltimore has locked up the No. 1 seed and will sit prominent starters. It’s a must-win for Pittsburgh, which sneaks into the playoffs by winning if the Titans lose at Houston. Still lean to Baltimore’s massive running game at home even with Robert Griffin III piloting.

Last week: 11-5 overall, 9-6-1 vs. spread

Overall: 159-80-1,122-112-4

– Greg Cote, Miami Herald