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Some pundits and critics claim the billionaire businessman and GOP frontrunner has recently hit a socalled “ceiling” of approval, citing his failure to pull majority wins in Michigan and Missisippi, as well as his recent losses to Ted Cruz in Texas and Maine. However, at the time I write, Trump holds a nearly 20 percent delegate lead over second place Ted Cruz. Additionally, Trump most recently won Missisippi with 47 percent of the vote, compared to his 35 percent win in the New Hampshire primary. Trump appears not to be hitting a ceiling; rather, with the addition of new voters and media spotlight he seems to be building his campaign higher and higher.

Let’s compare the percentages by which Donald Trump won his first and last three states: In early February Trump won New Hampshire with 35 percent of the vote, followed by South Carolina and Nevada wins with 33 percent and 46 percent of the vote respectively. A month later the Republican field has thinned some, the pot of controversy has been stirred in many directions, and if anything, Donald Trump’s lead appears stronger. Trump won the state of Hawaii with 42 percent of the vote, followed by a Michigan win of 37 percent and most recently a win in Missisippi with slightly over 47 percent of the vote. Regardless of what Mitt Romney, Vicente Fox and David Duke have to say, Trump’s numbers continue to increase. Controversy is fuel for the fire of the Trump campaign.

Importantly, Republican polling stations have noticed a record turnout in the number of voters this year. Take for example Missisippi, which Donald Trump won with just over 47 percent of the vote: During the 2012 election, Rick Santorum won Missisippi with 33 percent of the vote — but only 95,000 came out to vote for him. Compare that to 2016 where more than double – nearly 192,000 Missisippians — came out to vote for Trump. It is clear Trump attracts new voters to the Republican party, not just inactives and Reagan democrats but whole other groups not previously thought to be Republicans.

In Nevada, which Trump won handily with 46 percent of the vote, 44 percent of polled Latinos voted for Trump. Nevada has a large Latino population, a group which believers in Donald Trump’s “ceiling” may claim he has alienated by calling for increased border security and deportation of immigrants overstaying their visas. Historically left-leaning as a group, Latinos are breaking the mold by showing such support of Trump (compare the 2008 Nevada primary, in which Obama won 76 percent of the Latino vote, as well as 2012, when Obama won with a respectable 50 percent of the Latino vote.)

Republican support from black voters is much stronger this election cycle. Black voters are traditionally very left-leaning; but whereas 4-5 percent voted Republican over an average of the last two Presidential elections, Trump has 12 percent support among black voters based on a February national poll. Black voters are an extremely important group for Trump if he and Clinton (who polls very well among black voters) are their party’s nominees. Trump would greatly benefit in taking some of the black vote from Clinton, and if Trump continues building his above average support amongst minority voters he has less of a chance of hitting his so called “ceiling.”

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Trump has been brilliant with his use of press conferences, rallies, and revealing of endorsements in overshadowing other candidates. For example, look no further than Trump’s rally for veterans which was live the same time as the Iowa Republican debate. That debate went on to have the second lowest ratings of all televised before it. The frontrunner’s guarantee of a good show plus the controversy it generates is too much for the media to ignore, amounting to a lot of free press for a frugally run campaign.

Can Trump continue his momentous run or will his spotlight dim before the Republican convention? This question has been asked for months now. If voter turnout, delegate count and Trump’s ability to use the media to his own advantage are any indication, the answer may not support those who believe in a Trump ceiling.

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Miles Burleson-Lesser lives in Bath.



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