ALFRED — There’s little precipitation in the forecast over the next 10 days and so flooding in York County doesn’t seem likely during that time period.

But after that, at the end of March and beginning of April, the potential for floods increases if the snow pack lingers and there’s rain.

While the snow pack in York County is high, it is rain that causes flooding.

That was the word from meteorologist Tom Hawley of the National Weather Service Office in Gray and Greg Stewart, of the U.S. Geological Survey on Friday, as the pair, along with state dam inspector Tony Fletcher talked to emergency managers and others about flood potential.

Hawley said over the next two weeks, somewhat milder daytime temperatures, with temperatures in the teens at night and very little precipitation will melt the snow gradually.

Right now, in York County, for the most part, the water density in the snow pack is about 25 percent. It is when that density reaches 40 percent or higher that it bears watching, because the snow, like a sponge, can hold only so much water. Add copious amounts of rain, and flood potential escalates, Hawley said.

Emergency managers ”“ and residents who lived through it ”“ keenly remember the Mother’s Day flood of 2006, when, depending on the location, 6”“16 inches of rain fell on York County. A year later, in April, the Patriot’s Day storm dumped 5”“9 inches of rain on York County in two days.

“Rainfall is the primary driver of flooding,” said Stewart.

He estimated there’s a foot to a 1 1/2 feet of ice in the Saco and Mousam rivers, and 10 to 24 inches of snow on top of the ice.

While ice jams can cause bottlenecks as it breaks up and water builds up behind it, Hawley said he’s not heard of any ice jams on the Mousam River that caused flooding. As to the Saco River, any flooding due to ice jams tend to happen in the headwaters near Conway, New Hampshire and Fryeburg, rather than in this area.

Fletcher said while the dams in the area are old, they’re “robustly” built and therefore very sturdy.

The meeting was hosted by York County Emergency Management Agency. Municipal emergency management directors, sewer and water company representatives, those whose job it is to tend dams along the river and others stopped by to hear about the flood potential.

York County Emergency Management Agency is ready to work with its partners to keep an eye on the situation, said Director Art Cleaves. He and Public Information Officer Bob Bohlmann cautioned residents to monitor the situation closely and be prepared for a sudden thaw with rain that could pose a flooding issue.  

— Senior Staff Writer Tammy Wells can be contacted at 324”“4444 (local call in Sanford) or 282”“1535, ext. 327 or twells@journaltribune.com.