Sit with the following assessments for a moment and see how they make you feel.
Flush with cash. Record surplus. Soaring revenue. Strong fiscal health. “A billion dollars more in hand.” One commentator went as far as to say that the state had “hit the jackpot.”
Not bad, right? Nor are the numbers. Forecasters expect Maine to pull in $10.5 billion over the next two years and $11.6 billion in the two years after that, both up from $9.4 billion in this two-year period. We can’t continue just socking money away; our rainy day fund is creeping toward its statutory cap of $970 million.
And it’s against this very ready-for-rain backdrop that Maine joins a long list of states, unusually solvent thanks to infusions of federal pandemic funds and climbing tax revenue, that have either brought in or are entertaining state tax cuts.
Instead, we hope legislators put the money where it is seriously, undeniably needed.
As we reported last week, lawmakers in Augusta have submitted at least 17 bills to change Maine’s income tax code. About the same number of bills again are seeking various changes to the sales tax.
By July of last year, 10 U.S. states had enacted individual income tax cuts and six more had approved corporate income tax cuts.
And there were other means of divvying up the historic spoils. Eleven states took a direct tax rebate route (Maine among them, sending back $850 to eligible taxpayers last summer); five states observed gas tax holidays at one point or another; and Kansas and Virginia removed groceries from the sales tax base.
Yes, the Maine state ledger is looking good. Yes, that gives us a major opportunity. But not necessarily the one a lot of people are talking about at the moment.
We’re suggesting the Legislature do something more labor- and time-intensive than simply releasing the surplus in the form of income or other tax cuts. In the most thoughtful and targeted manner possible, we should reinvest it.
The unique set of circumstances that gave rise to this sum of money have given rise to a variety of other unusual, challenging developments for Maine. The word “crisis” applies to several basic aspects of the state economy in 2023.
With remote work planted firmly in the mainstream, people are landing in Maine by their thousands. At the same time, the damage done by the pandemic has had gnawing sequelae that are proving extremely difficult to recover from.
There’s a major disconnect between supply of services and demand for those services. Workers are increasingly unavailable or unfit for open jobs. Child care facilities are overwhelmed. Schools and students are struggling; school districts can’t even find bus drivers. Evicted tenants, soaring in number, have nowhere to go. Hospital waiting lists are mile-long. Drug overdose deaths are breaking records.
Both Democrats and Republicans are secure in the knowledge that almost nothing is more popular or memorable than a tax cut, electorally, and that evaluating and selling the merits of investment in the public good is a drag by comparison. The tax cut proposals swirling in Maine reportedly “run the gamut.” We’re not surprised.
Tax holidays on certain supplies is one thing; the abolition of income tax quite another. Anything remotely regressive – doing the least for people who have the least – should be abandoned right away. It seems to us unlikely that any of the proposals have the laser focus necessary to simultaneously assist those in need, disappoint more comfortable pockets of the electorate, and support vital programs and ambitious goals.
We urge lawmakers to resist the tantalizing arguments over who benefits from which tax cut and why, or by how much. Instead, pour that valuable time into exploring how the money can make an appreciable, lasting difference in all places where public policy has repeatedly fallen short. Such a rare opportunity to help future taxpayers should not be squandered.
Although we learned last week that the national and public health emergencies will expire in May, we’ve also surely learned that something like the COVID-19 pandemic can strike at any time. What’s more, projected revenue growth is all but impossible to bank on these days. By now familiar macroeconomic variables – war and supply chain volatility – could upset the broader picture and leave the state with a reduced tax base at risk of budget shortfall.
This “post-pandemic” windfall is compelling and has real potential for Maine. We have a wealth of options available to us, the least constructive of which would be to make significant tax changes.
There is no good reason to believe that this is anything but a one-time surplus. The balancing act that cutting tax rates requires catches up with state services eventually. It would be a deep irony if those services suffered, ultimately, when they could have been worthy beneficiaries of once-in-a-generation rehabilitation and reform.
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