PORTLAND  — Compared to two years ago, Maine Republicans are holding their own with Democrats in absentee balloting, and that’s good news for gubernatorial hopeful Paul LePage and other GOP candidates.

Republicans are neck-and-neck with Democrats in returned absentee ballots, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state. As of Thursday, Democrats had returned 16,349 absentee ballots, while Republicans had returned 16,293 ballots, according to figures provided by election officials to The Associated Press.

Although they’re close, this year’s absentee ballot figures show that Maine’s GOP is doing far better than two years ago when fired-up Democrats turned out in large numbers to elect President Barack Obama, said Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine.

“That’s reason for Republicans to be happy and for Democrats to be a bit nervous,” Brewer said.

At this time in 2008, Democrats accounted for 45 percent of early votes, compared to 29 percent for Republicans. Now those numbers are roughly equal at 37 percent apiece.

Michael P. McDonald, who tracks early voting at George Mason University, said the absentee ballot figures are consistent with polling in Maine that shows the governor’s race is close. “If anything, these stats suggest that the election may be a little closer than some of the polling suggests,” he said.

Brewer said the numbers hint at the so-called enthusiasm gap, the theory that Republicans and tea partiers are more energized than Democrats in this election cycle.

In Maine, the Republican Party’s conservative base seems to be fired up about the candidacy of LePage, who convincingly beat out six Republican rivals with help from the tea party to win his party’s nomination for governor. LePage is now campaigning against Democrat Libby Mitchell and three independents in the race to succeed Gov. John Baldacci, who is term-limited.

GOP State Committee Chairman Charlie Webster said it’s not just Republicans who’re fired up — Democrats and independents want change, too.

“If they don’t like where we’re at, they have no choice but to vote Republican,” he said.

Arden Manning, a Democratic campaign manager, cautioned against reading too much into the absentee balloting figures. He said Democrats aren’t making a concerted push like they did two years ago with a mass mailing of absentee ballots to potential voters.

Nonetheless, Manning said he anticipates a strong get-out-the-vote effort, and he said the success of that effort will determine who goes to the Blaine House. “If Democrats don’t vote, there’s a very good chance that Paul LePage will be our next governor,” he said.

The secretary of state’s office can track absentee ballot requests and returns, but none of those ballots will be tallied until Election Day.

So far, there have been more than 80,000 requests for absentee ballots, but only 43,986 of them had been returned as of Thursday, according to the secretary of state’s office. All told, more than 236,000 absentee ballots were cast in the 2008 election in Maine.