Greg Stewart can’t help but grimace at the weather forecast.

If he were going to put together an ideal scenario for flooding, he would have a hard time coming up with anything better than what meteorologists see on the radar this weekend.

“Right now, it’s a big warm-up with significant rain,” said Stewart, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Maine Water Science Center. “I’m hoping they’re wrong. I’m hoping they’re really wrong.”

Stewart and Anthony Underwood, also of the geological survey, and Coast Guard Chief Warrant Officer Bob Albert spent part of Friday on the Kennebec River, drilling holes in the ice just north of the Richmond-Dresden bridge.

The thickness ranged from 14 inches in the center, where the river flow is the greatest, to 26 inches closer to shore.

Those numbers are what one would expect at this time of year, Stewart said.

Indeed, the good news for people who own property along the Kennebec is that snowpack, ice conditions and headwater storages are normal.

There’s nothing in them to suggest that this will be a big season for ice jams or flooding, Stewart said.

But that could change if meteorologists’ computer models are correct.

Some of those models see temperatures Sunday soaring into the 50s, with several inches of rain. “It’s the absolute worst conditions you can have,” Stewart said.

Other computer models push the storm farther west or east.

Stewart and the rest of the Maine River Flow Advisory Commission met Thursday to talk about current conditions across the state, as well as the forecast. Although the mountains are likely to get more snow this weekend, southern and coastal Maine could get rain and warm temperatures, said Maine Emergency Management Agency spokeswoman Lynette Miller.

“Warm temperatures, coupled with the rain, could cause at a minimum street flooding, and potentially stream or river flooding,” Miller wrote. “Higher stream flows could also raise and move river ice, possibly causing ice jams.”

The Coast Guard will continue to monitor the weather to determine when to begin ice breaking on the river, Albert said. That could be as early as next week. The Coast Guard has sent out alerts and prepared its boats.

The cutters will break up the ice as far as Gardiner, which helps prevent jams from that point downriver.

“The ice breaking effort won’t prevent what occurred in Augusta last year,” Albert said, referring to a large jam that formed off Front Street and eventually stretched all the way to Farmingdale.

The good news is that the snow is dry and will absorb some rain like a sponge.

But if enough rain falls — say 3 to 5 inches — and temperatures are in the 50s, the snow will get saturated and water will begin to run.

“If we had a half-inch, inch of rain, we wouldn’t bat an eye,” Stewart said. “Three inches of rain, 50 degrees? That’s just something you never want to hear between now and May 30.”