Maine voters will consider a proposal for an Oxford County casino this fall, but more immediate gambling proposals are unfolding in nearby states.

In New Hampshire, for instance, a proposal to legalize video slot machines has been promoted as the best option for balancing the state budget. Yet opponents have so far held off approval, saying that New Hampshire must first establish appropriate gaming rules and a regulatory commission.

Maine might be able to learn much from this nearby debate. It draws on the recent findings of a state commission that spent almost a year considering the proposed expansion of gambling. The New Hampshire Gaming Study Commission concluded that both costs and benefits of commercial gambling could be substantial.

The report tallied expected revenue to the state and host communities from casinos, as well as the construction and casino jobs they would create and other short- and long-term benefits.

It also looked carefully at the risk that overbuilding ”“ particularly in Massachusetts ”“ might swamp the regional gaming market. Although the report paid scant attention to Maine, most potential sites in New Hampshire would draw customers from Maine, and a New Hampshire casino could serve part of the same Oxford County territory targeted by this fall’s referendum on behalf of Black Bear Entertainment.

The report appraised Massachusetts competitors as serious obstacles to New Hampshire’s hopes of establishing a substantial gambling industry. A casino in southern New Hampshire could generate $219 million per year for the state, it estimated, but that potential revenue could drop to $149 million if Massachusetts legalizes gambling.

The commission acknowledged that social costs of gambling are hard to quantify. Nevertheless, it estimated that  a full casino in southern New Hampshire would cause $60.1 million in social costs, of which $22.4 million would be borne by government.

The 175-page report includes many more details on the potential statewide impact of expanded gambling. It notes, for instance, that once gambling is established in a state, it tends to expand. The experience of other states has been that the pressure for more casinos and more state revenue has been hard to resist.

The New Hampshire report makes it clear how little we in Maine know about the potential impact of gambling proposals that are targeted directly to voters. Perhaps because state officials have concluded that casino gambling is not in our best interest, Maine has invested little time or effort in analyzing the state’s options.

Maine voters will have to rely on their own judgment as they weigh the claims and promises of the partners planning a casino in Oxford County. The  New Hampshire study is evidence that such enterprises can have consequences more complex than either supporters or opponents acknowledge.