On Tuesday of this week, with 30 games left to play in the Major League Baseball season, give or take a game, three of the six divisional races were decided, barring a complete collapse by the leader or a miraculous turn around by one of the also-rans.

In the American League East, the New York Yankees, with an 86-47 record, were leading the second-place Tampa Bay Rays by 9½ games and, in the West, the Houston Astros, at 85-47, were nine games ahead of the Oakland Athletics.  

In the National League West, the Los Angeles Dodgers were 11 games up on the Arizona Diamondbacks with an 86-47 record. Remarkably, after playing 132 games of the regular season, the three top teams in baseball, playing very different schedules, had almost identical records.

Red Sox fans might argue that a nine-game, or even an 11-game lead with 30 games left to play, does not guarantee a win for the leader. After all, in 2011, on Aug. 31, (this date), with 26 games to go the Red Sox were in first place, leading the second-place Yankees by 1½ games and the third-place Tampa Bay Rays by nine games. 

The Sox then proceeded to lose nine of their last 26 games to finish in third place while the Yankees won the division and the Rays won the Wild Card and the Sox lost Terry Francona and gained Bobby Valentine at manager. I don’t mean to rub salt in an old Red Sox wound but, despite the fact that stranger things have happened, I think the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers are safe at this point.

In the other three divisional races, the Atlanta Braves lead the National League East by 5½ games over the Washington Nationals and despite recent charges by the Nats and the New York Mets, look fairly safe at this point.  In the Central Division, the St. Louis Cardinals led the Chicago Cubs by three games but it’s too early to count out Joe Maddon’s Cubs.

In the American League Central, Rocco Baldelli’s Minnesota Twins led Terry Francona’s Cleveland Indians by 3½. Although Baldelli, whose story is one of the all-time “feel good” stories of baseball has done a magnificent job with the Twins, leading a team that finished 78-84 in 2018 to their 79^th win in their first 130 games this year, it is also too early to count out the Indians. Under Francona, the Tribe has won the division the last three years and four of the six since he took over as manager.

Although predicting the winner of the World Series before the playoffs start, or even before the participants in the playoffs have been determined is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle, there are some indicators that might provide some insight to help you choose the wrong winner.

One might be, how have the six division leaders fared against each other in the season so far? In games, played against the other five Division leaders at that point, the Yankees had the best record at 9-7, the Astros were 9-8, the Braves 8-7, the Dodgers 8-8, and the Cards and Twins 7-9.  Not enough difference there to make a prediction.

How about team batting average as an indicator? The Astros at .274, Yankees at .272 and Twins at .271 were second third and fourth in baseball.  The Braves eighth at .259, the Dodgers ninth at .258 and the Cards a distant 21^st at .246. Maybe we can eliminate the Cards with that number.  Of course, the third place Red Sox have the highest batting average of all at .276. 

Runs scored, the ultimate sign of a winner found the Yankees first with 777, the Twins second at 761, the Astros fourth at 724, the Dodgers fifth at 722, the Braves sixth at 705 and the Cards lagging at 21^st with just 604.  Again, you might eliminate the Cards from contention. By the way, that open spot at third highest runs scored belonged to the third place Red Sox with 757. 

The other, and perhaps most important statistic of them all, since pitching is the ‘name of the game’ in most experts’ eyes, is earned run average.  The Dodgers had the best staff ERA in baseball, at 3.35, Houston the fourth best at 3.69, St. Louis the fifth best at 3.93, the Twins eighth at 4.18, Braves, 10th at 4.27 and the Yankees 15th at 4.46. By the way, the Red Sox, in case you haven’t noticed, have a pitching problem and had the 18th worst staff era in baseball at 4.65.

While the Yankees and Astros appeared to be the strongest of the contenders offensively, with the Dodgers not far behind, the Dodgers had a distinct advantage on the pitching side with the Yankees trailing by a significant amount.

The Dodgers have been to the Series two of the last three years, losing to the Sox last year and the Astros in 2017.  The Yankees, on the other hand, have not been in a Series since beating the Phillies in 2009 while Atlanta’s last Series appearance was a win over the Yankees in 1999.  The Twins won in their last appearance in 1991 when they beat the Braves.  The Cards lost to the Red Sox in 2013 in their last appearance after taking the 2011 Series from the Rangers.

With all this information at hand, you might think that it will be either the Astros or the Yankees facing off against the Dodgers in the World Series. When that day comes, fans, all bets are off and it could just as well be the Cardinals against the Red Sox in the Big Show. 

Does that sound impossible?  Does a team going without a World Series win for 86 years and then winning four in the next 15 years sound any more impossible?

With 30 games to play, the World Series winner can as easily be predicted by a roll of the dice as by any other method. Hang on to your hats, folks, as Yogi said, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”