Here’s a great idea for commemorating the 20th anniversary of Maine’s last state-government shutdown in 1991:

Let’s do it again.

Planning this event won’t be difficult. We already have most of the key elements in place:

A partisan split over crucial ?issues.

Inflammatory rhetoric from both sides.

Inept, inexperienced and intractable negotiators.

Tactical missteps by powerful players.

A reluctance on the part of the international community to commit ground troops.

Oops, sorry, that last one was a reference to Libya, where recent violent events bear no relationship to the budget dispute in Maine. I can’t understand how that line snuck in here, but let’s just forget about it.

Back to our discussion of the possibility that, as happened two decades ago during an impasse over workers’ comp reform, Republicans and Democrats will be unable to agree on spending cuts before the start of the new fiscal year on July 1. Such an occurrence would force most state offices to close.

As GOP Gov. Paul LePage has noted, “I have not yet ordered the use of force, not yet ordered one bullet to be fired … when I do, everything will burn.”

Again, I beg your forgiveness. That quotation wasn’t from the governor, but from Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Its erroneous use in this context was inexcusable.

What LePage actually said in an interview with Capitol News Service was, “If that budget is altered, it is not my budget, it is the Legislature’s budget. If they alter the pension [reforms], if they alter the tax breaks, if they alter the welfare reforms, those are the showstoppers.”

Asked if that meant he’d veto a budget that contained compromises necessary to win Democratic votes, LePage said he would.

“Peaceful protests is one thing, but armed rebellion is another.”

Apologies. Gaddafi slipped in again.

LePage’s hard-line stance may play well with his base among Tea Partiers, ultra-religious factions and loyalist militias, but it fails to acknowledge reality. Passing a budget requires a two-thirds vote of both legislative chambers. That means a unified Republican caucus will need to convince at least four Democratic senators and a minimum of 23 Dem representatives to support it. To do that, there will have to be concessions, some of which undoubtedly won’t be to the governor’s liking.

By threatening a veto before budget hearings have even concluded, LePage has effectively destroyed most negotiating options available to GOP legislative leaders. Now, they can’t back off the governor’s demands that state workers take significant cuts in wages and benefits – a major sticking point for Democrats – without inviting the sort of intramural squabble between themselves and LePage that could inflict significant political damage on one of the combatants. After all, the governor has already emphatically rejected calls to ease up on public employees, telling Al Jazeera, “Labor in return for wages is virtually the same as enslaving a human being.”

Or that could have been Gaddafi. I’m getting confused.

Likewise, LePage has been clear he’s in no mood to relax his proposed welfare and social services reductions, even though there’s almost no chance any Democrat will support a budget that doesn’t make some changes in his original plan. From single parents with low incomes to people with AIDS to those in substance-abuse treatment to families on the dole, virtually every recipient of state aid will experience some negative effects from the LePage budget. As with state workers, Dems can’t afford to alienate these key constituencies by rolling over. Unless the GOP gives some ground, the Dems will have to dig in, build fortifications and prepare for a protracted war of attrition.

As a Democratic leader told the Wall Street Journal, “We’ve opened the doors for volunteers in the new army, to unite and fight against the mercenaries and liberate all of Libya.”

Libya? Why’d he say that? This is about Maine.

In any case, both sides are now locked into their positions with virtually no wiggle room, even when the grains of the desert’s sands get in their underwear and camel fleas ravage their posteriors.

Republicans can’t work out a deal without appearing to undercut their nominal leader, which means they’ve either got to go along with his ill-considered ranting or turn him into a lame duck before he’s halfway through his first term.

Democrats, already in the minority, can’t defy any of the special interests they’re beholden to without leaving themselves in an even weaker position for the 2012 elections.

Both sides may opt for stalemate, hoping the voters will blame their opponents.

Or, as Gaddafi once said of a similar conflict, “I cannot recognize either the Palestinian state or the Israeli state. The Palestinians are idiots and the Israelis are idiots.”

One bright spot: In the ‘91 shutdown all state liquor stores closed. Today, there aren’t any state stores, so we’ll still be able to buy booze. Other cheery thoughts can be e-mailed to aldiamon@herniahill.net.