FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – El Nino can make the difference between a nasty hurricane season and an easier one. But timing is everything.

Although it’s looking more likely that El Nino will emerge this year, scientists are unsure if it will develop in time to temper the meanest stretch of hurricane season, August through October.

“It could be strong enough to hamper storm formation, but it’s not a guarantee at this point,” said Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who develops seasonal predictions.

El Nino, created by an abnormal warming of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, generates strong wind shear that tears apart storms before they get started.

Although computer models unanimously agree the atmospheric pattern will arise over the next few months, it has yet to fully develop, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.

“It hadn’t reached the threshold in June,” he said. “July is going to be close.”

How will scientists know if El Nino arrives? In simple terms, the temperature of the Eastern Pacific must warm to 75 degrees, and currently it’s 74.5 degrees. It could take a body of water as huge as the Pacific a long time to warm that half a degree, Halpert said.

Technically, El Nino is deemed to have developed when the water temperature is at least 1 degree above the 30-year average temperature of the Eastern Pacific. Further, the water heat must remain steady or continue climbing to demonstrate that the ocean isn’t experiencing a “temporary blip,” he said.