Both the past and projections of the future have taught SAD 51, the school district for Cumberland and North Yarmouth, to anticipate growth in the next decade and beyond. As they are in the process of building a new school campus in response to increasing district enrollment, school staff and board are also anticipating how the district and municipalities can be best prepared for an increasing community to serve.

“It might be beneficial, considering that we are now building a school based on all the enrollment…to try to get in front of what might be happening in the future and what we should be expecting,” said SAD 51 Superintendent of Schools Jeff Porter at a meeting on May 15.

While growth is the norm for Cumberland and North Yarmouth over the past several years, this was not the case over the decades. Like many communities in the area, enrollment slowly declined two decades ago, which prompted the district to downsize its buildings and combine its three schools onto one campus, rather than take on the costs to maintain or upgrade older buildings.

Yet ten years ago, the trend changed and both towns saw increases in residents. As a result of new housing developments and more families moving to Cumberland and North Yarmouth, district enrollment numbers steadily increased from 2,000 students in 2016 to 2,250 students this year.

“I think because we were only left with three buildings, we didn’t have as much flexibility when numbers started going up again,” said Leanne Candura, SAD 51 board chair.

The district began enrollment studies to examine the longevity of this growth. These projects use numbers of births, first grade enrollments and the net housing units added to a district to model rates of enrollment as far as 10 years out.

Reports in 2016, 2019, 2022, and 2023 consistently informed the district that they would need a new school to accommodate the number of students in the next several years as well as decades. In 2019, the district moved forward with proposing the One Campus project, but it was not until last year that the district narrowly received enough resident support to pass the project on the ballot.

“That was a long process for us to get, to convince enough people that yes, in fact, we have a problem, and yes, in fact, this problem will not go away, and it will continue,” said Porter.

The new schools will open in two years. This year, to accommodate 2250 students, SAD 51 had 29 portable classrooms outside of the school buildings. Porter said that projections show the district growing 50 students or more every year for the next decade.

Given the five years it took to get the new school passed, the SAD 51 Board of Directors and Porter want to be more prepared for the future of growth in the municipalities and for how the district will have to respond.

On May 15, the Cumberland Town Council, SAD 51 School Board and North Yarmouth Selectboard held a Tri-Community Meeting to give updates on initiatives, discuss possibilities for shared services and talk about the future of the district.

As compared to surrounding municipalities such as Yarmouth, Falmouth and Portland, SAD 51 towns of Cumberland and North Yarmouth have more land available for future developments. While the housing market could influence housing turnover, this building opportunity could lead to more dramatic growth in the towns over the next decade and beyond.

“North Yarmouth is going to continue to grow. Cumberland is going to continue to grow. There are always gonna be people, I think, that are gonna want to come here. We need to manage that and at some point, you will have to have a conversation about another school, or portables, or something like that,” said Cumberland Councilor Andrew Magoun at the Tri-Community Meeting.

Cumberland staff are currently updating the town’s comprehensive plan to will be release next spring. The plan will help dictate some of the development in Cumberland. While the town itself currently has no development projects, a developer is currently building 72 three-bedroom condominiums on Blackstrap Road.

“We’ve had growth in the town. I’d say yes, Cumberland will probably continue to grow, and in what ways will be defined by the comprehensive plan,” said Bridget Perry, Cumberland Director of Planning and Sustainability.

Candura and Porter proposed that the towns and school district go in together to fund more regular demographic studies to better anticipate growth. While the schools and town separately receive data and projections about their populations, a joint study has not been conducted before. The district also suggested the three bodies better coordinate tracking housing developments in the communities that could lead to more students in the schools.

The One Campus project was designed with a decade of enrollment growth in mind. The buildings will be larger than the size of the student body when it opens, but not large enough to accommodate the increasing size for the next decade, as the heating and maintenance of unnecessarily large buildings is costly. Instead, the schools are designed so additional blocks of classrooms can easily be added onto the buildings when student body outgrows the initial size.

“When we put the plan together for the new school, it wasn’t being built just for what we have now. It’s being built for projections that we’ve been maintaining and updating along the way, which every model we’ve had has continued to project growth in this area,” said Candura.

While the district may be ready for the number of students it expects in the next decade, the experience planning for the One Campus project taught SAD 51 staff and board that anticipating growth across the towns is key, as responding to growth takes time and significant funds.

“We’re good for the foreseeable future in terms of capacity…but if this continues over the next couple of decades, and growth continues, we don’t know what that means for the schools,” said Porter.

“That’s really what I think a lot of people’s interest is, is not to be caught off guard again, that if we’re going to be talking about development, let’s be really coordinated,” said he said.