Overseas travel to the United States has declined sharply since President Donald Trump returned to office.

Industry experts say some of the reasons are plain to see: Reports of detentions and deportations, including the weeks-long lockup of European tourists, have sowed fears of bad experiences at the border. Some countries have tightened travel advisories, and Trump’s whiplash tariffs have ratcheted up international tensions.

Last month, overseas visitors fell nearly 12% compared with the same time last year, according to data from the International Trade Administration, an agency under the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The downturn, after a 2% decline year-on-year in February, is the first meaningful downturn since travel plummeted in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

If sustained, the drop could translate to billions of dollars in lost tourism revenue, industry experts project.

The number of people visiting Maine fell for the third straight year in a row and state officials are expecting to see a large drop in Canadian tourists this summer. The state’s tourist count dropped 3% last year, from 15.27 million visitors in 2023 to 14.8 million in 2024.

Some would-be travelers are nervous about the Trump administration’s policies. Others are enraged by his rhetoric. Some question their safety. The European Union has begun to issue its U.S.-bound officials burner phones, for fear of surveillance, the Financial Times reported.

“The reaction of international travelers to avoid the U.S. is entirely predictable,” said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, an industry research firm. “The combination of policy and rhetoric that has been so divisive and combative and isolationist — each successive policy and related polemics have been making the situation worse.”

The drop in visitors from certain countries and regions is especially stark. According to the International Trade Administration data, there were 17% fewer visitors from Western Europe in March, 24% fewer from Central America and 26% fewer from the Caribbean compared with a year ago.

The agency’s data, which relies on I-94 forms that travelers submit at the border as basic arrival and departure records, covers non-U.S. citizens and nonimmigrants from overseas staying one night or more, including for vacation, business or to visit family.

The data is considered preliminary because it does not contain figures for Canada and Mexico, which have not yet reported their data to the International Trade Administration.

After Canada and Mexico, the largest share of travelers typically hail from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Britain, Japan, South Korea, China, India, Australia, Brazil and Colombia.

Visitor numbers from nearly all of these countries dropped in March. Visitors from Colombia shrank by 33%, Germany 28% and Spain 25% year on year.

Instead of heading to the U.S., many Europeans are opting to travel regionally instead, Sacks said. Over time, they may choose Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, he added.

Some fluctuations in arrivals are expected year-on-year, industry experts said: Easter, a major time for travel, happened in March last year but is in April this year. February was one day longer last year.

“So much is unknown about how much any of these things are going to factor in long-term,” said Michael Schottey, vice president of the American Society of Travel Advisors. “There’s a lot of just waiting and seeing.”

Before Trump’s second term, travel to the U.S. was finally rebounding to pre-pandemic levels.

The U.S. Travel Association, an industry group, estimates that travel injected $1.3 trillion into the U.S. economy and supported 15 million jobs last year. This year’s downward trend is alarming, said Allison O’Connor, a spokeswoman for the group.

“We attribute this to a variety of factors, including a strong dollar, long visa wait times, concerns over travel restrictions, a question of America’s welcomeness, a slowing U.S. economy and recent safety concerns,” she said.

Sacks said the declines “are a harbinger for what we’re going to see the remainder of the year. It is likely getting worse.” If the trend continues, he said, “we’re looking at a decline greater than 10% for the year,” which could amount to a projected loss in $9 billion in travel and tourism revenue.

Canada is the top source of international visitors to the U.S. The U.S. Travel Association estimates there are about 20 million visits from Canada annually, with many escaping frigid winters to generate more than $20 billion in spending in states including Florida, Arizona and California. After Trump’s tariffs were announced, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to choose Canada and instead buy domestic products and vacation within Canadian borders.

Preliminary data from the Canadian government shows that as of March, the number of Canadians visiting the U.S. by car plunged by nearly 32%, compared with the same time last year. Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by air declined by 13.5%.

From Mexico, arrivals to the U.S. by air have dropped nearly 17% in March, compared with March last year. Data for land arrivals — the largest source of arrivals from Mexico — is not yet available.

The administration’s actions “have completely turned the tide for international travel away from the U.S.,” Sacks said.

In a response to a request for comment on the downturn, the White House said Trump’s policies would bolster the country’s image.

“President Trump’s agenda to make America wealthy, safe, and beautiful again benefits Americans and international visitors alike,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, told The Washington Post, pointing to the 2026 World Cup hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, along with the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, as moments to “show all that makes America great.”