AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Chiefs (13-6) at Ravens (14-4), 3 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Ravens by 4
Outlook: Kansas City is a trendy upset pick for some and I get it. Patrick Mahomes has already been in three Super Bowls and won two, while Lamar Jackson is still trying to be Mahomes and finally add a ring to an otherwise Canton-headed career. But I get even more why Baltimore is favored – and should be. Two great defenses in the AFC final, but edge to the Ravens. Baltimore’s edge on offense is even greater, and further magnified by the hope that Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews will play for the first time since November. That would be huge for Jackson. Nobody has a better ground game or better balance with the ball than the Ravens. The Chiefs’ under-performing offense will be missing All-Pro LG Joe Thuney, and Mahomes has been hampered all season by a receiver group that led the NFL in most fumbles (10) and drops (39). A fast start may be key for the Chiefs, who are 8-0 when leading after the first quarter and 1-5 when trailing. The Ravens, though, are well-suited to win either a defensive battle or a shootout. This feels like Baltimore’s time. And Lamar’s.
Prediction: Ravens, 24-21

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Lions (14-5) at 49ers (13-5), 6:30 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: 49ers by 7
Outlook: Upset! And a big one. Outside of giddy Motowners euphoric over the Lions’ biggest playoff success since 1991, I don’t have much company in predicting a Detroit win. I can’t pretend to lean on irrefutable logic. It’s a strong hunch and a gut feeling that logic couldn’t make go away. San Francisco has been less than dominant at home (5-3) and is on an 0-6 skid at home against the spread. Also, the 49ers may be without WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder). The team is 8-9 (0-2 this season) when Samuel does not play, and also 2-5 in NFC title games since its last Super Bowl win three decades ago. There is little doubt Detroit’s offense can hang with the Niners in a shootout, but the question is the Lions’ defense. It led the NFL with 176 QB pressures and I believe will pester Brock Purdy, while Jared Goff is facing a 49ers secondary that is not a strength. I also like the Lions signing TE Zach Ertz, with Pro Bowl rookie Sam La Porta not expected to play. The first quarter figures as telling. Detroit is 9-0 when leading after the first; San Francisco is 0-4 when trailing after one. Dan Campbell has this team believing. That matters.
Prediction: Lions, 34-31

Divisional round: 3-1 overall; 0-4 vs. spread
Playoffs: 6-4, 4-6
Season: 171-101; 130-133-9