SATURDAY’S GAMES

Texans (11-7) at Ravens (13-4), 4:30 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
Spread: Ravens by 9
Outlook: One year ago, Houston had come off a woeful 3-13-1 season, was praying for some draft magic … and got it. His name: C.J. Stroud. He’s why the fourth-seeded Texans are two wins from a Super Bowl appearance. But the dream run ends here. Hey, sometimes fairy tales end badly, right? Stroud’s first road playoff game is in a very tough place vs. a very tough defense. The Texans’ best hope for an outright upset is that Baltimore’s starters haven’t played for three weeks and that might show – or that the Ravens will assume the Texans are in happy-to-be-here mode and take them lightly. Last week’s impressive Texans rout of Cleveland should help prevent that. The Ravens average 31.9 points at home, and it’s proving-ground time for Lamar Jackson. He might be headed for another league MVP trophy but is 1-3 in the postseason – a reputation and career-sullying narrative that would grow if he falls here as a No. 1 seed. It won’t happen.
Prediction: Ravens, 27-20

Packers (10-8) at 49ers (12-5), 8:15 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: 49ers by 9 1/2
Outlook: San Francisco’s No. 1 seed vs. Green Bay’s No. 7 makes it seem lopsided, although that may disrespect the surge the Packers are on – four wins in a row straight-up as betting underdogs. QB Jordan Love has been as good as anybody the past two-plus months and is on a 21-1 TDs/picks tear over the past nine games. And RB Aaron Jones and that O-line are percolating, too. Green Bay’s 48-point detonation of the Dallas’ defense surely earned the Niners’ full attention. I can see Love and Brock Purdy trading touchdowns in a shootout here. More than that, though, I think the two running games will be paramount. Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers — who led the NFL with 74 runs of 10-plus yards – can do ground-level damage against a Packers’ defense whose soft spot tends to be against the run. Green Bay began the season 3-6. The turnaround has been remarkable. But it ends here.
Prediction: 49ers, 30-20

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Buccaneers (10-8) at Lions (13-5,3 p.m. (NBC)
Spread: Lions by 6 1/2
Outlook: Detroit’s first playoff victory since 1991 last week has Dan Campbell and Jared Goff the biggest things in Motown since Marvin Gaye and Stevie Wonder. The Lions are No. 3 seeds to Bucs’ No. 4, but Tampa crushed Philly last week while Detroit eked out a 1-point win over the Rams – its ninth one-score result this season. The Lions haven’t earned overconfidence and better not be feeling that here because Baker Mayfield is on a right-before-our-eyes comeback tour that has resurrected his once-discarded career. The Bucs have won four straight as a betting underdog and have a big chance to make it five in a row. I’m buying Detroit’s mojo, though, and the lift from its 10-2 run at home. More tangibly, Goff, like Mayfield once written off, rises and could do major damage here – thinking a flirt with 400 yards – against a subpar Tampa Bay pass defense that is bottom-five in most air yards allowed.
Prediction: Lions, 31-28

Chiefs (12-6) at Bills (12-6), 6:30 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Bills by 3
Outlook: It’s the Game of the Week, the only one that feels even, and where the underdog winning would not surprise. Buffalo earned the No. 2 seed and is home against No. 3 K.C. – and that is huge with Patrick Mahomes playing the first road playoff game of his career (not counting three Super Bowls). Mahomes must wander to western New York, albeit with summery 20-degree temps expected. The Chiefs have won 10 of 12 on the road but are on a 2-9 skid in away playoff games. By contrast, Buffalo is on a masterful 14-2 run in playoff games at home. Mahomes will try to buck that trend and send K.C. into a sixth straight AFC title game, while Josh Allen has his own incentive after losing the past two playoff meetings against the Chiefs. Two great QBs make it a titan matchup, but the home-field edge makes it a medium-confidence lean to Bills.
Prediction: Bills, 24-20

Last week: 3-3 overall, 4-2 vs. spread
Season: 174-104, 134-135-9