PATRIOTS THIS WEEK
Chiefs (8-5) over @Patriots (3-10), 1 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: Chiefs by 7 1/2
Outlook: The Drama Bowl. K.C. has lost two straight and four of six, with the frustration showing in Patrick Mahomes’ whining about the officiating last week. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick parries growing questions about his future in New England with his team already playoff-eliminated. Pats can cover here with a massive defensive showing at home, but cannot see an offense that has scored 23 total points in the past three home games outscoring even a struggling Mahomes.
Prediction: Chiefs, 23-16

GAME/UPSET OF THE WEEK
Cowboys (10-3) at Bills (7-6), 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: Bills by 2
Outlook: Both teams coming off huge wins (Dallas over Philly, Buffalo over K.C.), but no letdowns allowed here. Dallas can clinch a playoff spot with a win or other results aligning, while the Bills are scrambling just to make the playoffs. I get the point spread. Dallas is mighty at home, but all three losses have been on the road. The two defenses will define this result, and I trust the Dallas playmakers more than Josh Allen, who has thrown at least one interception in nine straight games.
Prediction: Cowboys, 31-28

OTHER GAMES

@Dolphins (9-4) over Jets (5-8), 27-17: Miami ‘s first three losses were against quality teams on the road. Monday’s loss to the 4-8 Titans, at home, happened in the worst way – a 14-point lead blown on a defensive collapse in the last four minutes. Another home loss would have Miami suddenly staggering and the AFC East title in doubt.

@Browns (8-5, -3) over Bears (5-8), 24-16: Coach Matt Eberflus and QB Justin Fields are fighting for their futures in Chicago and are sneaky dangerous. But veteran fill-in Joe Flacco has been tonic for Cleveland’s offense and proved capable of keeping Browns on playoff pace.

@Packers (6-7, -3 1/2) over Buccaneers (6-7), 23-20: The Bucs are clinging to a tiebreaker lead in the weak NFC South, while the Packers are hanging onto the seventh and last playoff spot. Jordan Love hopes to have weapons Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back from injury.

@Titans (5-8, -3) over Texans (7-6), 27-23: I lean with the home team largely because Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) and top WR Nico Collins (calf) both were iffy. The Titans do face the risk of a letdown after that crazy 28-27 upset win in Miami on Monday.

@Saints (6-7, -6) over Giants (5-8), 17-16: The Saints are alive in the NFC South race, while the Giants have won three in a row behind Tommy DeVito. With Derek Carr’s receivers room an injury-wracked shambles, expect the low-scoring Giants to cover.

Falcons (6-7, -3) @Panthers (1-12), 23-17: The erratic Falcons won the first meeting, 24-10, in Week 1 and should roll again, though they can’t be trusted. Carolina’s defense is fourth in yards allowed but 31st in points, with its lousy offense gifting short fields to opponents.

@Rams (6-7, -6 1/2) over Commanders (4-9), 34-13: In three straight losses, Washington has been outscored by 77 points as the seat under Coach Ron Rivera reaches spontaneous combustion levels. Opposite directions and high likelihood of a rout.

49ers (10-3, -12) over @Cardinals (3-10), 27-17: The 49ers are rolling with the NFL’s most balanced team. They have won three in a row over Arizona by a total of 72 points. This could be another rout … but will it be? Lean on the Cardinals with the points.

Ravens (10-3, -3 1/2) over @Jaguars (8-5), 24-16: Two AFC division leaders meet, but the Ravens have lost four of five trips to Jacksonville. But it’s a Ravens defense against Trevor Lawrence, who probably shouldn’t be playing after suffering a high-ankle sprain just two weeks ago.

Eagles (10-3, -3 1/2) over @Seahawks (6-7), 30-20: Monday nighter finds both teams looking for a lift, with the Eagles off two straight losses and Seattle’s four-game losing streak its worst since 2010. Strong lean to Eagles on a 9-1 run as favorites.

Last week: 7-8 overall, 7-7-1 vs. spread
Season: 127-81, 611 overall; 103-98-7, .512 vs. spread