PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Commanders (3-5) at Patriots (2-6), 1 p.m. (FOX)

Spread: Patriots by 3 1/2

Outlook: Washington has second-worst scoring defense in league … but can Mac Jones and Pats’ 31st-ranked scoring offense take advantage? The Commanders have a higher offensive upside with Sam Howell, but can he outscore his own defense’s ineptitude? A hesitant venue pick, with a hedge against the spread.

Prediction: Patriots, 24-21

GAME OF THE WEEK

Dolphins (6-2) vs. Chiefs (6-2) in Germany, 9:30 a.m. (NFL)

Spread: Chiefs by 1 1/2

Outlook: These are two of the four teams bunched at 6-2 atop the AFC, and the winner will have every right to think itself on the inside lane to a Super Bowl. Miami has the one offense in the league best-suited to engage and beat anybody in a shootout and, in this case, to offset and overcome the Chiefs’ overall edge on defense.

Prediction: Dolphins, 30-27

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Cowboys (5-2) at Eagles (7-1), 4:25 p.m., FOX

Spread: Eagles by 3

Outlook: Dak Prescott is 8-3 in his career against the Eagles, including the three straight wins (11 TD throws, one interception). Plus, there two really good offenses here but only one top-five defense, and it’s the Cowboys.

Prediction: Cowboys, 27-23

OTHER GAMES

@Falcons (4-4, -4 1/2) over Vikings (4-4), 19-16: Minnesota lost QB Kirk Cousins lost for the year to an Achilles injury and fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall gets his first career start. But Vikes’ defense is good enough to cover, and. Atlanta has QB issues of its own, with Desmond Ridder benched in favor of Taylor Heinicke.

@Browns (4-3, -8) over Cardinals (1-7), 24-6: Deshaun Watson seems on track to return from a shoulder injury, while Arizona rookie Clayton Tune will get his first pro start (with Joshua Dobbs traded to the Vikings). Myles Garrett and Browns’ D will make for a mournful Tune.

@Packers (2-5, -3 1/2) over Rams (3-5), 23-20: A dicey pick with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (thumb) iffy, with a steep drop to backup Brett Rypien. The Packers GM was noncommittal on Jordan Love as long-term answer, so he’s playing to earn his future. Lean on the Rams getting that extra half-point.

@Saints (4-4, -8 1/2) over Bears (2-6), 27-13: The Saints defense will make it a long day for Justin Fields’ backup Tyson Bagent. Derek Carr has rolled three straight 300s for the Saints, and we’re seeing a big fantasy day for Alvin Kamara.

@Ravens (6-2, -6) over Seahawks (5-2), 24-20: Baltimore ties for best record in AFC, while Seattle is all-in as evidenced by a trade for run-stopper Leonard Williams. Edge to Lamar Jackson and an elite D, although the bet-line disrespects Seattle.

@Texans (3-4, -3) over Buccaneers (3-4), 20-16: Neither offense is great but Tampa’s is worse, scoring only 37 total points in its 0-3 slide, with Baker Mayfield playing through a knee injury. Still sniff a medium-size upset shot for the Bucs.

@Panthers (1-6, +2 1/2) over Colts (3-5), 27-23: Indy has allowed 114 points in a three-game skid. The Colts do have a path to winning here – Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss eating clock vs. a beatable Houston run defense – but it’s nothing I’d count on.

Giants (2-6, +1 1/2) over @Raiders (3-5), 19-16: Las Vegas fired Coach Josh McDaniels, its GM, its OC and, in effect, its quarterback by benching Jimmy Garoppolo for Aidan O’Connell. The Giants get QB Daniel Jones back, and Saquon Barkley faces a lousy run defense.

Bills (5-3, +2 1/2) over @Bengals (4-3), 31-27: When last these teams met in Cincy late last season, Bills safety Damar Hamlin nearly died on the field. Joe Burrow and Cincy are in sync after a slow start , but I see a shootout-ready night from Josh Allen against an average Bengals secondary.

Chargers (3-4, -3 1/2) over @Jets (4-3), 24-16: The Jets present a top-five pass defense to challenge Justin Herbert. The trouble is, Zach Wilson and that weak Jets offense . Herbert and Austin Ekeler, et al., won’t need to score much for it to be enough.

Bye week: Broncos (3-5), 49ers (5-3), Jaguars (6-2), Lions (6-2)
Last week: 11-5 overall, 4-9-3 vs. spread
Season: 73-49, 55-62-5