PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Patriots (7-6) at Raiders (5-8), 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Spread: Patriots by 1

Outlook: This was toughest pick of the week for me. Vegas is in a spoiler role as the Patriots fight to stay in AFC playoff hunt. The Raiders also enjoy a rest edge after playing last Thursday while the Patriots played Monday. Ultimately I trust Bill Belichick and the Pats’ defense. Derek Carr showed how bad he can be in a loss to the Rams last week, and this will be a bigger test for him.

Prediction: Patriots, 23-18

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Bengals (9-4) at Buccaneers (6-7), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Bengals by 3 1/2

Outlook: Cincinnati has cast aside early season doubts with a 7-1 streak behind an in-charge Joe Burrow. Tampa limps toward the playoffs only because everybody else in the sad NFC South is even worse. The Bucs got routed by San Francisco last week and Tom Brady has spent much of the season looking ticked off. So, yes, there is very little to justify this crazy upset pick beyond a plain hunch. If there was ever a time for Brady to summon his inner G.O.A.T., this is it.

Prediction: Buccaneers, 27-24

OTHER GAMES

Eagles (12-1, -9) over @Bears (3-10), 28-20: The Eagles have scored 123 points over the past three games and face a Bears defense that has allowed 27 or more in six straight losses. Chicago QB Justin Fields is iffy (shoulder) but expected to play. I’ll hunch the Bears stay inside bet line.

@Saints (4-9, -4) over Falcons (5-8), 24-16: Atlanta turns to raw rookie QB Desmond Ridder for his NFL baptism, a likely feast for the Saints, on a 5-1 series run, including one-point win in the season opener. Look for the Saints to unleash mysteriously underused Alvin Kamara.

@Panthers (5-8, -3) over Steelers (5-8), 19-17: Pittsburgh’s QB situation muddies the pick, with Kenny Pickett in concussion protocol, Mitch Trubisky on call and third-stringer Mason Rudolph a possibility. Carolina’s ground game provides a big lift for Sam Darnold, but hedging with the Steelers plus-3.

@Jets (7-6, -1) over Lions (6-7), 26-23: Two straight losses have left New York a tiebreaker off the pace for the AFC playoffs, while five wins in the past six games has given Detroit a fighting shot in the NFC. Jets QB Mike White (concussion) is out and Zach Wilson is in for a favorable matchup vs. the Lions defense, while Jared Goff’s sneaky-good season faces a big test from a stout secondary.

Cowboys (10-3, -4) over @Jaguars (5-8), 30-20: Trevor Lawrence has been great lately despite playing through a toe injury, but faces his toughest test of the year. The Jags have won four straight outright as a home dog, and a pick or two by Dak Prescott could keep this close, but I still like the Cowboys to cover.

Chiefs (10-3, -14) over @Texans (1-11-1), 28-17: Houston showed it has heart and fight left in nearly stunning Dallas last week. K.C. led Denver by 27 last week but only won by six. These things make Texans-plus-14 a decent play, but I like Patrick Mahomes outright, of course.

@Broncos (3-10, -2 1/2) over Cardinals (4-9), 19-16: A tough venue in winter on a short week for the Cardinals, especially with Kyler Murray lost for the rest of the season. Russell Wilson (concussion) is iffy with Brett Rypien on call, but I’m leaning on home field and big defense.

@Chargers (7-6, -3) over Titans (7-6), 28-23: Derrick Henry can run on L.A., but I like Justin Herbert even more against a 31st-ranked pass defense. The Titans are due to bust out of their slump, but the Chargers I saw dominate the Dolphins are the better team.

@Commanders (7-5-1, -4 1/2) over Giants (7-5-1), 23-20: These teams tied 20-20 just two weeks ago and I like Washington at home in the rematch, with a better defense, coming off a bye, and 5-1-1 under Taylor Heinicke. By contrast New York is in a 1-4-1 slump.

@Packers (5-8, -7) over Rams (4-9), 21-7: This is about as intriguing a Monday night matchup as you will get from two teams a combined 9-17. You have Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay still dreaming of running the table. You have the Rams, a beleaguered reigning Super Bowl champion, playing out the string with Baker Mayfield at QB. All with a wintry Lambeau Field backdrop. All Pack.

Week 14: 6-7 overall, 2-11 vs. spread.

Season: 120-86-2, 96-106-6