While it is premature to declare Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over, with Ukrainians dying in the Donbas region every day, it is critical to lay the foundation for what a postwar Ukraine would look like.

A woman walks past a school partially destroyed as a result of a missile strike in Kostyantynivka, Ukraine, on July 25. Ukraine has a history of dissatisfaction with the status quo that heralds important change – without plans on what comes next. Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images/TNS

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Dmytro Boyarchuk is executive director of CASE Ukraine, an independent think tank based in Kyiv, and Christopher Hartwell is professor of international business policy at ZHAW School of Management and Law in Switzerland and professor of international management at Kozminski University in Poland.

Ukraine has a history of dissatisfaction with the status quo that heralds important change – without plans on what comes next. From its independence from the Soviet Union, to the Orange Revolution of 2004 and 2005, to the Maidan “Revolution of Dignity” in 2014, initial momentum toward promising reforms stalled without a concrete plan on how to institutionalize a new, liberal-minded Ukraine. It is thus imperative that Ukrainian policymakers and foreign donors have a list of specific actions to undertake immediately.

The 2022 Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, Switzerland, was the first iteration of such a document, bringing donors and Ukrainian authorities together to attempt to find a common language on postwar Ukraine. The conference showed that the landscape for donor assistance to Ukraine is stronger than it has been in years, galvanized by the humanitarian disaster and the realization that a resilient Ukraine remains a bulwark against a revanchist Russia.

As a first attempt, the document produced was long on goals but short on specifics, as the Ukrainian government presented what was more a collection of wishes rather than a real plan. At times, it appeared that the Ukrainian delegation came to the conference to fundraise for the recovery in general rather than to present a coherent strategy.

The rebuilding and (still far too delayed) transformation of a country as important as Ukraine needs a better mechanism to bring the actual needs of the country to the fore. Our efforts as heads of a Swiss-Polish-Ukrainian initiative have worked on clarifying these needs and actions that are required in Ukraine once the war is over.

In particular, we propose that a blueprint for Ukraine’s recovery should concentrate on three themes. The first group of reforms should focus on European integration, including increasing the access of Ukrainian agricultural goods to the EU market on a permanent basis.

The second group of reforms is more in the hands of Ukraine and should ensure creating a friendly business environment that will compensate for the risks people and businesses face when operating in postwar Ukraine. These crucial areas include a massive and concerted effort toward deregulation, along the lines of Poland’s Balcerowicz Plan of 1989, as well as donors helping push substantial judicial reforms, including a revival of anti-corruption infrastructure. At the same time, the country is long overdue for streamlining its tax and customs procedures, privatizing its state-owned enterprises and further liberalizing its energy market.

The final group of reforms should center on institutional strengthening of Ukrainian society, including continuing the liberalization of the land market, which was on hold for 20 years until President Volodymyr Zelensky was able to force through a repeal of the land sale moratorium. Along these lines, the success of decentralization, a reform that has helped the country be more resilient in the face of invasion, needs to be continued.

Specific actions under these broad headings need to be formulated to point the government in the right direction.

For all of its advances since Maidan, corruption in Ukraine is still problematic. The infusion of massive amounts of donor funding will likely stoke even more political jockeying for the spoils. We propose that funding should be exchanged for and targeted specifically at reforms, with officials responsible for the disbursement of funding evaluating progress closely. In this manner, rather than a money dump, funds would be managed and disbursed based on specific reforms.

On the day the war ends, the Ukrainian government needs to have a clear vision of what is to be done, how it will be done and – crucially for explaining reforms – why this plan was chosen and not one of the competing alternatives. Now is precisely the right time to push a discussion on the postwar recovery of Ukraine.