Boston Red Sox starting pitcher David Price during a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston, Tuesday, July 30, 2019. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

On July 31, the Red Sox were in third place in the Eastern Division of the American League. After they had drubbed the Yankees in the first three games of their series last weekend, many Red Sox fans began to believe that their team could still go all the way and give them their second World Series win in a row and their fifth of the century. Then came the fourth game of the series and Chris Sale, arguably one of the three best pitchers in the American League over the past several years, continued to be wild in the strike zone and got beaten up by the Yankees in the finale.

Then, two days later, David Price couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. Boston dropped the first game of a three game series to the second place Tampa Bay Rays, 6-5, and they were back to nine games behind the first-place Yankees and two games out of the last playoff spot at the end of July.

Carl Johnson

Still, Boston fans held on to their hope that their Sox could come back, win at least a Wild Card spot and, like the Wild Card winners, the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals in 2014, make it to the World Series. Even that year, which I like to call the “Wild Card Year” because both World Series teams were Wild Card entries, the only year this has ever happened, both those teams were in second place in their divisions on July 31.

I’ve got some sobering news for Red Sox fans who still believe their heroes can go from third place in their own division to the World Series. In the 19 seasons of this century, only three teams that have been in third place or worse on that date have gone on to the World Series that season and only one team that has done that has won the Series.

The last time a team in third place or worse at the end of July made it to the World Series was the 2007 Colorado Rockies who, after being in fourth place with a 54-52 record, won 36 and lost 21 the rest of the way to gain a Wild Card berth. (The Dodgers, who were in second place ahead of the Rockies in the National League West, finished 24-31 down the stretch to smooth the Rockies way into the playoffs.) The Rockies miraculously reached the World Series only to be outscored by the Red Sox 29-10 and swept in four games.

Two teams that were in third place in their division have appeared in the World Series in that 19-year period. The 2002 San Francisco Giants were in third place in the NL West on that date, with a record of 59-49, and made it to the Playoffs bygoing 36-17 the rest of the way. They made the World Series and were beaten by the Anaheim Angels in seven games. In Game 7, the Angels won 4-1 and the starting and winning pitcher was none other than John Lackey, who later joined the Red Sox and was not Sox fans’ favorite pitcher.

The only other team to start from third place in its division on that date and make it to the World Series, and the only one since the turn of the century to win the World Series was the 2003 Florida Marlins, who went from third place, with a record of 59-50, to second place, and a Wild Card berth, with a 91-71 record. They beat the Yankees in six games to take the World Series and the winning pitcher, with a five hit, complete game shutout of the Yankees in Game 6 was another less than favorite future Red Sox pitcher, Josh Beckett.

Superstitious fans might point out that every time a team has gone from third place on that date to the World Series there has been a Red Sox connection.

If you have been paying attention while reading this, you will note that all three teams that made the comeback from third place or worse and made it to the World Series had one thing in common. Every team that made it to the World Series from third place or worse, in that 19-year period was a National League team.

If the Red Sox were to make it to the World Series this year, they would be the first American League team to come from third place to the World Series in this century. In fact, no American League team has ever made it from third place on that date to the World Series since the Wild Card was created in 1994. Prior to that, with two divisions, the division winners were the only teams to qualify for the playoffs.

My only advice for Red Sox fans at this point is “Don’t quit on your team yet.” This is still the team that won 108 games last year and made easy work of the best teams that baseball had to offer in the postseason. This is still one of the best hitting teams in baseball.

This is a team that, while obviously not playing up to its potential so far, was 6-13 on April 17 and has won 53 and lost 36, since then, a .596 winning percentage. With exactly one third of the season left to play, if they continue to win at that rate, they will end with a 91-71 record. At that rate they won’t catch the Yankees but could still make the Wild Card.

In four of the last five years, except for 2018, both American League Wild Card teams have gotten to the Wild Card with 91 victories or less. Stranger things have happened, so hang in there Red Sox fans. As Yankees great Yogi Berra once said: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

Carl Johnson is a noted baseball lecturer and author. His books include the popular series “THE BASEBALL BUFF’S BATHROOM BOOKS” and “THE BEST TEAM EVER?” which chronicles the Red Sox 2018 World Series win.