GAME OF THE WEEK

Jaguars (3-1) at Chiefs (4-0), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Chiefs by 3.

Outlook: Patrick Mahomes versus the NFL’s best defense is as good as it gets in Week 5, folks. Mahomes (14 TDs, zero picks) is everybody’s early MVP front-runner, while the Jaguars lead the league in fewest points, total yards and passing yards allowed. Kansas City’s big-play Tyreek Hill versus CB Jalen Ramsey should be a delight. If any opponent can rip Superman’s cape off the still-inexperienced Mahomes, it’s Jacksonville – which is why I place a high Upset Alert on this game. The Chiefs’ defense must play better than it has to avoid that. We’re going to put a lot of stock in the home field to help pull the Chiefs through. But with much trepidation.

Prediction: Chiefs 24-23.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Cardinals (0-4) at 49ers (1-3), 4:25 p.m. Sunday (FOX)

Spread: 49ers by 41/2

Outlook: The Cardinals have beaten the Niners six straight times, but that trend means less to me than this: San Francisco is as injury-wracked as any team in the NFL – especially on offense. That gives Arizona’s defense a chance to cause some havoc. I also have been impressed with rookie Cardinals QB Josh Rosen. Arizona’s run defense is worrisome. Still, I don’t see Arizona being the only winless team much longer.

Prediction: Cardinals 20-17.

Other games

• At Bengals (3-1, -5 1/2) over Dolphins (3-1), 30-20: Andy Dalton to A.J. Green will be a handful for Miami, which lost a lot of trust from me in that 38-7 collapse in Foxborough. Dolphins are only 1-6 in the past seven road games. Venue call.

• Titans (3-1, -3) over At Bills (1-3), 23-13: Buffalo’s win at Minnesota two weeks ago was the most untrustworthy outlier of the season. That said, possible Titans letdown after last week’s stunner over Philly makes Buffalo a decent risk.

• Ravens (3-1, -3) over At Browns (1-2-1), 38-16: Pssst, Baltimore is really good. Ravens have won five in a row and 18 of past 20 over Browns, and that trend will continue here.

• At Lions (1-3, +1) over Packers (2-1-1), 27-24: Upset! Inclination was Green Bay, but flipped on a gut feeling – Detroit has home field and desperation. Plus, Aaron Rodgers may be missing top three WR to injuries.

• At Jets (1-3, -1) over Broncos (2-2), 19-17: Denver has won three in a row over Jets, but Case Keenum hasn’t been very good, and Broncos are coming off a short week. Denver has lost 10 of its past 11 on the road. We ride nervously with NYJ.

• At Steelers (1-2-1, -3) over Falcons (1-3), 34-27: Dueling disappointment as two playoff-thinking teams stagger into this one. An upset would not surprise, but I cannot see Pittsburgh losing a fourth straight home game.

• At Panthers (2-1, -7) over Giants (1-3), 27-17: Carolina carries nifty seven-game home winning streak, has won three in a row after a bye week and gets boost from addition of safety Eric Reid.

• At Chargers (2-2, -5) over Raiders (1-3), 31-23: Chargers are really good. Playoff good – their two losses to unbeaten Rams and Chiefs. Blossoming star RB Melvin Gordon has made Philip Rivers a better, more efficient QB. Upset Alert, though, in this rivalry game.

• At Eagles (2-2, -3) over Vikings (1-2-1), 24-21: Sluggish first quarter for last year’s NFC championship contenders, but Philly is 11-1 in past 12 home games and is more well rounded right now.

• Rams (4-0, -7) over At Seahawks (2-2), 23-20: Would not shock me to see Seattle marshal its remaining powers – sonic home field, Russell Wilson, solid defense – and bounce Rams from unbeatens, but I won’t quite pull upset trigger.

• At Texans (1-3, -3 1/2) over Cowboys (2-2), 24-20: Sunday night sees fifth-ever Battle of Texas. Win by big-brother Dallas wouldn’t surprise, but Cowboys’ offense has been tepid, and Deshaun Watson is averaging almost 360 pass-yards his past three games.

• At Saints (3-1, -6) over Washington (2-1), 38-27: Monday night stage has Game of the Week heft – quality shootout seems likely and history will almost certainly be made. Drew Brees needs only 201 passing yards to top Peyton Manning’s all-time record of 71,940.

Last week: 11-4 overall, 8-5-2 vs. spread.

Season: 41-20-2, 35-25-3

By Greg Cote, Miami Herald