The 2015 Sebago Lake Rotary Ice Fishing Derbies champ Brady Ouellette will be gearing up for this year’s event by changing the leaders and hooks on his traps and figuring out the best fishing location.

But the expert ice angler from Auburn is holding off on deciding exactly where he’ll stake a claim on Sebago, while he waits to find out whether fishing will be allowed on the lake at all this year.

Poor ice conditions, caused by months of unseasonably warm weather, are casting a pall over the derby, set for Feb. 27-28. While derby organizers have yet to cancel or postpone the popular event, as they have done several times in its 16-year history, lack of consistently cold weather is once again causing havoc with the Lakes Region’s premier winter event.

In fact, thanks to last weekend’s all-too-short cold snap, Monday was the first time this season ice fishermen were able to safely make their way out onto a frozen Sebago Lake.

Among the stalwarts, Lee Gagnon and Peter Hernandez were leaving the ice near the Standish Boat Launch in the late afternoon, sliding their catch on a plastic sled across the ice. For Gagnon, that was two fish; for Hernandez, five.

The fishermen said Lower Bay had about 6 inches of solid ice on it. Ken Morrell, a fisherman also returning from a day on the ice, said to test for safety, they stab into the ice with a chisel, and measure the thickness before proceeding. Four inches of ice is considered by many to be the “minimum” amount of ice needed for safe passage on foot.

The fishermen agreed the ice was pretty good, with patches of thick, black ice allowing views of the fish below. But they didn’t know if they’d be fishing the derby on Big Sebago this year, saying they’d wait to see what the week brought for weather and organizers’ determination whether to let the Sebago show go on.

On Wednesday, a week and a half before the derby, Deb McPhail, president of the Sebago Lake Rotary Club, which hosts the derby, said that “no decision has been made yet” regarding fishing on Sebago Lake, “but the derby is still on because we have all of Cumberland County – 50 lakes and ponds – for fishing.”

Organizers several years ago decided to expand the derby to include all Cumberland County lakes in the event of poor ice on Sebago. There are two derbies hosted by the Rotary club. The Sebago Lake derby is now joined by a competition in which fish can be caught on any Cumberland County lake. Different sets of fish prizes are distributed based on fish caught in Sebago Lake and other lakes. The Sebago derby awards prizes for togue only. The countywide derby has three categories: perch, pike and pickerel. This allows the organizers some insurance since Big Sebago is prone to high winds that can hinder ice development. Sheltered smaller lakes and ponds allow ice to set up, but even smaller water bodies this year feature less-than-ideal ice with many fishermen staying away.

Tom Noonan, director of the derby from its beginning in 2000 until 2012, said every four years or so, the questionable ice conditions cause organizers to worry about whether Sebago will freeze.

Toward the tail end of a record warm winter and after a week of bitingly cold weather, Noonan joked that the only way to know if the ice is good is “get up in the morning and go out and take a look.”

But he also said it’s a little more scientific than that. Derby officials receive counsel from the Maine Warden Service regarding ice conditions, although the final word about whether fishing is allowed on Sebago is up to the derby organizers.

Deb McPhail, president of the Rotary club, said it’s difficult to cancel the Sebago event knowing all of the proceeds will go to local charities, including the Good Shepherd Food Bank, Maine Children’s Cancer Program and Camp Sunshine.

The derby has already broken even, McPhail said, thanks to sponsorships from local businesses and donated gift cards that are given away as prizes. If fishing is canceled on Sebago, McPhail said, refunds are rarely an issue since most early registrants know the money goes to charity and don’t ask for money back.

But the majority of ticket sales are made in the last few days before the derby, according to McPhail, and if Sebago is not accessible, ticket sales definitely take a hit. That means fewer dollars can be donated to the beneficiaries.

“(The charities) are why we do it,” McPhail said. “We work eight months ahead of time to pull this off. And it’s very disappointing to cancel.”

But ultimately, the decision has to come down to people’s safety, McPhail said.

Even if Sebago doesn’t freeze, there are still plenty of opportunities for fishing and fun at the derby, according to McPhail. Organizers are reviving activities such as vendors at Raymond Beach this year and the polar dip. And all entrants will be entered into a raffle, the grand prize being an ATV from Team Woody’s Performance Center in Topsham. Early registrants also had the chance to win 10 $50 gift cards from Cabela’s.

“The derby is still on,” McPhail said. “We definitely want people to enter. They can fish all over the county and help raise money for charity.”

On Monday, the last fishermen were returning from a day on Sebago Lake. For many, it was the first day this season they were able to fish on Sebago. Organizers are hoping weather cooperates for the Sebago Lake Ice Fishing Derby, set for Feb. 27-28.