Sit down. I’m going to give you some news. You heard it here first.
Within six months of the November election – and the victory of Gov. Paul LePage – Eliot Cutler will be the newest Justice on the Maine Supreme Court. In fact, if, for some reason, there is an unexpected vacancy in the position of Chief Justice of the court, say hello to Mr. Chief Justice Eliot Cutler.
How do I know this? I’m just a political junkie, a former Maine state and local politician, and a lawyer for 30 years. I figure these things out.
Bet your mortgage on it.
The explanation: The presence of Cutler in the gubernatorial race – the same as four years ago – will guarantee that LePage can win the election with 39 percent of the vote.
Here is the math.
For different reasons, Gov. LePage consistently “tops out” at 39 percent in the election public opinion polls. How this breaks down, basically, is about 30 percent of the voters in Maine are enrolled as Republicans. Close to 40 percent have historically, often, voted Democratic. About 30 percent are absolutely unenrolled in a political party, or so-called “independents.”
LePage in the last election got 39 percent of the vote. This means, according to popular theory, that he got all 30 percent of the Republicans, and also got perhaps nine percent of the “independent” vote. 39 percent.
The polling that is being done both by the campaigns lately, and also by news organizations shows the same results. LePage topping out at 39. A lesson of this trip is – Bob’s Small Engine Repairs; Mabel’s Lookin’ Good Hair Salon; Macomber’s Variety Store, Andrews Corner Market, Ready Teddy’s Quick Stop – the backbone of the Maine economy is small business.
What does the future hold?
Conservative areas politically – Waldo County, Lincoln County, Hancock County. Some homes or businesses that did not look that prosperous had LEPAGE FOR GOVERNOR signs on their lawns, or buildings.
The trip was an affirmation that LePage has his conservative Republican support sewn up.
LePage started out the race with 40 percent of the vote, and still has 40. What of the other 60 percent?
A strong Democratic candidate (a George Mitchell, a Joe Brennan), the Democratic candidate could get, I think, up to 45 percent of the vote in this race.
That soaks up 85. The other l5 percent?
In a two-person race between Gov. Lepage and Democratic candidate Mike Michaud? Many of the votes would go to Michaud. He would then rise from 40 to 45 or 50. That is what I believe. Election over.
The point of this math is that in a two-person race, Michaud wins handily.
Now, enter Cutler.
He came into the race and got 10 percent support this time around immediately. It slowly grew to 20 percent. Add up the 40 percent for LePage, and 40 percent for Michaud, and you have 100. Now, factor in that, once Cutler began running TV ads, etc., he got more popular. Eventually, he would garner close to 30 percent of the vote. The extra votes would not come from LePage. They come from Michaud.
So, what you have is Cutler and Michaud each getting about 30 percent of the vote, and Lepage keeping his 40 percent. Lepage wins.
LePage – a smart politician – realizes how valuable Eliot Cutler has been to him, twice.
The reward will come in the form of black robes.
Chief Justice Eliot Cutler, Maine Supreme Court.
It is not something LePage sought. It is not something Lepage has figured out yet.
Nonetheless, I predict it will happen.
Dan Warren is a Scarborough lawyer who can be reached by private Facebook message to the page Jones & Warren Attorneys at Law, or by e mail at jonesandwarren@gmail.com.
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