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Last Sunday, some Americans were probably relieved to see that the United States had topped China, its closest rival, in Olympic medals.

Some had worried that, having topped the U.S. in gold medals four years ago, China was about to overtake the United States as the world leader ”“ at least in total Olympic medals. Such worries are a symptom of a bigger concern.

Speculation has increased that China will soon overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy. And, if China is America’s largest creditor, it might soon be able to control the American economy.

While the Olympic results may have been relatively close, other worries about China overtaking the U.S. are greatly exaggerated.

In 2011, the Chinese economy was less than half the size of the American economy. While it is growing at a faster rate, it is forecast to remain far behind the U.S. for many years.

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With a population more than four times greater than the U.S., it is not surprising that China’s growing economy gets closer in size to ours. Someday China could surpass the American economy.

Maybe Americans ought to be hoping for greater Chinese prosperity. As a country gains a stronger economy, it increasingly tends see world issues like other, similarly wealthy countries.

But China has a long way to go. Last year, American wealth per person was $49,000, compared with $8,500 in China.

Even worse, for the Chinese, their country experiences huge income gaps with rural people having tiny incomes ”“ less than $1,000. Meanwhile, the urban professionals prosper.

In short, Americans are far better off than Chinese, and it would take quite a while for China to catch up. And if it does, China will probably have a worldview closer to the U.S. than it does now.

But can’t China, as our principal creditor, wreck our economy?

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The fact is that China is far from our largest creditor. Most of our national debt is owed to Americans, including a huge amount that is owed by one agency of government to another.

Among foreign lenders, China is our largest creditor. But it holds less than 8 percent of our total debt.

Not only does this mean that China has little ability to harm the U.S., but it has no reason to damage the American economy. It wants to get its American debt repaid, and it wants us to continue being good customers for Chinese goods.

These days, the worldwide recession has driven down Chinese export sales. In short, the U.S. has had more influence on China than the other way around.

What does China plan to do in light of reduced exports? It will seek to develop its own domestic market.

Instead of taking money it earns on foreign sales and shipping it out of the country for development projects in Africa and Latin America, it may keep more of its money at home. If it improves the low pay of its workers, it will make them customers for Chinese products.

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Even if China won’t dominate world affairs or the world economy, it will be America’s rival in the world.

Its aid to developing countries is designed to give it access to raw materials and to make those countries more dependent on it. They may be willing to support China’s policies, which may clash with ours.

And unlike the U.S., China does not seem to care if the regimes in countries in which it invests are corrupt or ignore human rights.

This is a challenge to American foreign policy to support regimes that treat their own people fairly, while finding ways to develop our own trade with emerging economies.

China’s military force is designed to strengthen its position in the Asian region rather than directly confronting other major powers. It is pressing claims to large areas of the South China Sea, where there may be rich oil and mineral reserves.

American attention is focusing more on dealing with this challenge. Most other countries in the area, such as Japan and the Philippines, actively seek U.S. involvement and help in opposing China’s claims.

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The result is that China has caused increased American involvement in the area, which has been welcomed by other countries there. That is probably just the reverse of what it would have wished.

As a major power and the world’s most populous country, China presents problems for the U.S. But, despite claims that it will soon challenge America’s leading role in the world, it is still far behind, and its growth can turn out to be as much a benefit as a threat.

— Gordon L. Weil is an author, publisher, consultant, and former official of international organizations and the U.S. and Maine governments.



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