What’s the most powerful driver of social change?

Societal change is inevitable; that much is certain. But what precipitates it and how rapidly it comes about depend on a variety of factors.

The dominant influence behind the ultimately successful drive to legalize casino gambling in Maine was money or, more specifically, the relentless pursuit of it by aspiring casino owners. But the force driving the campaign to legalize same-sex marriage may, in the end, be even stronger and more compelling than greed: Principle. Simply put, the thoughtful, well-organized, tolerant and determined proponents of marriage equality know they’re doing what’s right.

On Election Night 2003, the chances of large-scale legal gaming operations in Maine appeared dead in the water. A citizen initiative to approve a proposed casino that would have been run by the Passamaquoddy Tribe and the Penobscot Nation was thunderously voted down statewide by a better than 2-1 margin. But prescient casino opponents didn’t rejoice. It wasn’t just that Question 2, a more innocuous-looking citizen initiative on the same ballot that proposed allowing slot machines at certain horse racing tracks in the state, passed by a 53 percent to 47 percent margin. It was the sinking feeling that gambling purveyors would keep coming back until they got what they wanted: A license to legally pick the pockets of citizens so enticed by the possibility of making easy money that they willingly sublimated whatever familiarity they had with the laws of probability. The gushing revenue streams generated by gambling establishments from Nevada to Mississippi to Connecticut were impossible for rapacious would-be Maine casino operators to ignore.

Even after the crushing casino advocates took at the polls on Nov. 4, 2003, the only uncertainty was how long it would take them to bamboozle Maine voters into believing that not only would legalized “gaming” be entertaining, exciting and glamorous, but that allowing it inside their very own state would create jobs, prop up existing industries, and provide limitless money for other important programs like education.

Fast-forward to 2012; less than nine years after the electoral trouncing casino proponents took in 2003, Maine is mere months away from having not one but two large-scale gambling establishments inside its borders, and all thanks to the persuasive power that some say only money can inspire.

This November, history may be getting ready to repeat itself. Another issue that’s been voted down in the past is back on the ballot, only this time it’s the people opposed to same-sex marriage who have reason to feel uneasy. Those working to legalize same-sex marriage in Maine merely wish to make what is already morally equitable legal as well. Their opponents, who have until now successfully staved off the right of gays and lesbians to marry the partner of their choice by stoking fear and suspicion, are now fearful themselves.

Tangible signs that the winds of change are blowing are abundant. Few politicians of any persuasion openly gay-bash anymore, or at least no sensible ones who aspire to hold any significant elected office in the future. National organizations that in the past have bankrolled successful campaigns to hold off the right of same-sex couples to wed are finding the number of battles they feel need fighting multiplying; this fall several states will have same-sex marriage questions on the ballot, and there are limits to how much money even staunch, obstinate, willfully dogmatic organizations such as Stand for Marriage, the National Organization for Marriage, the Christian Coalition and similar organizations can raise.

There are also indications that the Roman Catholic Diocese of Portland, a powerful force behind the success of Question 1 in 2009, will oppose the marriage equality movement much more covertly this time around, if they publicly contest it at all. It’s also conceivable, or even probable, that as hidebound opponents of same-sex marriage inevitably die off, the younger, newer voters registering to replace them are increasingly sympathetic to a cause most see as being more about equal rights than special ones.

Who knows ”“ it’s possible that in the not-too-distant future those who fervently opposed legalized gambling will find out that casinos won’t lead to Maine’s undoing after all. And similarly, those who think same-sex marriage will cause the sky to fall may discover that their fears, too, were unnecessary.

Either way, chances are that before long Mainers will find out for better or worse what, if any, effect(s) legalized gambling and same-sex marriage will have on a state with a slogan, “The Way Life Should Be,” that for the moment must seem paradoxical to at least some of its citizens.

— Andy Young teaches in Kennebunk and lives in Cumberland.