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Business confidence is the only thing missing in this slow economic recovery. As long as business leaders remain unsure of government’s next moves, the economy will not stabilize completely. Yet, there are signs that indicate things may be improving in our overall economy.

Sure, many issues confront our nation. Huge deficits and growing debt concerns weigh heavily on us. Housing foreclosures remain a significant problem. Taxes will increase for most business people, and the economy will continue to see ups and downs, especially because we are in an election year.

Business is improving, even if the progress is not as fast as we would like. The GDP is slowly moving up, and we can anticipate slow business growth. A good example is a business in which my own family is involved: The steel distribution industry. The company provides basic steel materials to manufacturers. In January of this year, we had our highest monthly sales and dollar volume, since we started our business in 1972. As a result of this expanded growth, we have hired more people in our company. The factories giving us the orders are experiencing growth in sales volume, too, but we don’t know if this will last.

One uncertainty that faces us is that our economic recovery will depend on the financial well-being of European nations, several of which are facing potential default. Exports could fall off, resulting in fewer sales and profits. A depression in Europe could affect our own fragile economy. People would continue to buy products, autos and homes in America, but recovery could be on a much slower track.

The economy also could be affected by various hidden agendas slipped into federal legislation laws recently passed. A good example is the taxing portion concealed in the health care law document that had about 2,300 pages. Individuals and married couples are to be taxed 3.8 percent on the sale of their houses, if they earn more than $200,000 and $250,000 respectively. Of course, many families have their case money in the sale of their homes, for use in retirement, so that tax will hurt them financially.

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It was released in the media that pork is still alive in Washington D.C. Projects that favor legislators’ states or districts, and for which the federal government pays ”“ like bridges, roads, various building or pet personal projects ”“ are still being discretely slipped into laws. This is happening even though this practice was presumably eliminated recently by Congress. When this happens, you are taxed to pay for these projects.

Job creation is another area in which there is evidence that there has been some improvement in the economy. More jobs have been created in many American industries recently. In some states like Michigan, joblessness is now at 9 percent, but it was 14 percent several years ago. The U.S. Labor Department shows a drop in full-time unemployment to 8.3 percent. This low figure is challenged by some experts as being misleading, however, because many unemployed workers are thought to have dropped out of the labor market, gone off unemployment compensation, retired or taken part-time work.

The economy will recover many of the jobs that were lost during the recession, but it could take up to a decade for that to occur. And the jobs that come back will likely require much more training than the jobs that were lost. That is because factory productivity has increased due to automation, but it has been at the expense of fewer factory-type job openings in the future.

On the other hand, the stock market is up. The stock market does run risky, but it is an indicator that things are improving. A number of companies are buying back their stock or acquiring other smaller companies with their excess cash reserves, especially in the electronics and health provider markets. These companies are making more profits, and are likely to give their shareholders greater dividends.

It is a great opportunity for those companies to swap their surplus cash in order to buy or invest in other companies. This business tactic is usually done when the economy starts to improve. The stock market will go up and down daily before the end of this year, but it should continue to rise overall. As of now, the market has reached its highest market peak since 2008.

So while the economic news is not great, it is not bad. The signs are all pointing upward, toward a slow, but improving growth in value, in jobs, in productivity and in returns.

— Bernard Featherman is a business columnist for the Journal Tribune and past president of the Biddeford-Saco Chamber of Commerce.



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