Keep it close. They came here expecting a blowout. Don’t give it to them.

Do you see their eyes? They’re nervous. They never expected to be in a close game. Listen. Your fans are going bonkers, making more noise than a parade. Their fans are pretty quiet. Some of them are even sitting on their hands.

Every decision you make is the right one. Everything they try goes wrong.

There’s an upset brewing.

Sometime this week, it’s going to happen. Rather, it’s likely to happen. A seven seed or lower is going to win a high school basketball quarterfinal game. Since the 2000 tournament, it’s happened at least once every year. It should be noted, however, in 2002 the Maine Principal’s Association broke each region into two subregions, which eliminated classic 8 vs. 1 and 7 vs. 2 matchups. In the Western C boys tournament, however, Telstar beat Hyde. If you combined the Heal points of the two Western C divisions, Telstar was the No. 10 seed, Hyde was No. 1.

Since the 2000 tournament, a 7 seed or higher has won 19 regional quarterfinal games, approximately one out of every 10 games featuring a low seed against a high seed.

“You’ve got nothing to lose. Nobody expects you to win. The whole key is keeping that game within striking distance,” Lawrence boys basketball coach Mike McGee said. “The most difficult game for the favorite is that first one. In some cases, you’re supposed to win by a lot.”

Now in his 28th season coaching at Lawrence, McGee has been on both sides of the upset. In 1988, he coached the Bulldogs to a 16-2 regular-season record, and Lawrence went into the Eastern A tournament as the top seed for the first time. They lost to No. 8 Presque Isle, 86-81, in overtime.

“You could see (Presque Isle’s) confidence just building,” McGee said.

That came just two years after Lawrence pulled off what is arguably the biggest upset in Maine high school basketball history. The Bulldogs entered the Eastern A tourney as the No. 7 seed and won a pair of games, setting up a rematch against top-seeded Waterville. A few weeks earlier, Waterville went into Lawrence’s gym and beat the Bulldogs by 56 points.

In the Eastern Maine championship game, Lawrence avenged that loss with a 56-53 overtime win.

“We had to go out and play great, or we could get embarrassed,” said Mike Brown, who played on that Lawrence team and is now one of McGee’s assistant coaches. “I don’t know if you could find a bigger upset. As a coach, you look at that game and say anything can happen, because you went through it.”

Twenty-one years later, Brown was the head coach at Maine Central Institute, and was on the sidelines for one of the most recent big upsets. The No. 8 seed in Eastern B, Brown’s Huskies knocked off top seed and defending state champion Maranacook, 58-50.

“We were an eight seed, but we were 13-5. We had a lot of seniors. We were a confident group,” Brown said.

MCI jumped out to a 19-4 lead, and although Maranacook cut its deficit to five points in the third quarter, that fast start propelled the Huskies and gave them confidence when the Black Bears made a run. Maranacook played without guard Will Bardaglio, who was out with an illness, and it was one of those rare games that season in which the Black Bears didn’t shoot well.

“We got off to such a tremendous start. Everything we did offensively early worked,” Brown said. “Our kids held together.”

While MCI built a lead that day and hung on, often an upset occurs when the underdog shrugs off the favorite’s initial blow. That was the case last season, when the No. 8 Messalonskee girls beat No. 1 Morse, 53-43, in the Eastern A quarterfinals. Morse led 17-10 early in the second quarter. An 11-0 run gave the Eagles the lead for good just before the half.

“We finally came together. As coaches, you want to put everything together at tournament time, play very well, and run off your four wins in a row,” Brenda Beckwith, Messalonskee’s coach last season, said.

In 2009, the Lawrence boys, the No. 7 seed, kept it close against No. 2 Brewer, a team which beat the Bulldogs twice in the regular season.

“We played them twice in the regular season, and they blew us out twice,” McGee said. “We played much better defense that game. You could see the Lawrence team being a lot looser, and Brewer getting tighter.”

Trailing by six points entering the fourth quarter, Lawrence tied the game with 1:34 left, and took advantage of Brewer miscues down the stretch. After the Witches hit a free throw to take a 40-39 lead with 14.2 seconds left, Lawrence’s Brooks Spaulding, who missed four foul shots in the third quarter, made a free throw to tie the game with 4.6 seconds to play.

When Spaulding missed his second free throw try, Lawrence’s Max Haney grabbed the rebound, was fouled, and sank both his attempts for the 42-40 win. The struggling Haney had been benched earlier in the game, but his clutch foul shots are another piece of many upsets. An unsung player stepping up at a big moment.

“We just kept chipping away,” McGee said. “This whole tournament comes down to who makes plays, and we made plays.”

Making plays breeds confidence, and that’s what Beckwith saw from her team as, minute after minute, the Eagles held off the Shipbuilders. Beckwith saw her team play its best basketball of the season. This was a team that was held under 20 points in a game twice in the regular season. On this day, they were great.

“Halfway through the fourth quarter, I said ‘We’re not wilting.’ ” Beckwith said. “Mickee McCafferty was playing dominant defense inside. Mickee was right in the middle of it, saying ‘Bring it on.’ “

In preparing her team, Beckwith kept the scouting report on Morse simple. Instead, she focused on making sure her team focused on the fundamentals.

“I’m not much into scouting. Give them too much information and they forget to play basketball,” Beckwith said.

In a practice prior to playing Morse, Beckwith brought out a bag of apples. She held one up, and told her team this is where they were in the tournament.

“I said ‘Reach up and grab it.’ ” Beckwith said. “They should have beat us by 40.”

Upsets are forever. McGee, Brown and everybody who was involved with Lawrence’s win over Waterville 26 years ago still talk about it as if the game was played yesterday.

When you’re on the losing end of an upset, however, it lasts a little longer than forever.

“I remember it all too well,” Edward Little boys basketball coach Mike Adams said. “We still talk about it pretty much every year.”

* * *

The Edward Little boys basketball team entered the 2007 Eastern A tournament as the undefeated and top-ranked favorite. The Red Eddies faced No. 8 Hampden, which was coming off of back-to-back Eastern Maine titles but entered the tournament with a 9-9 record.

Edward Little was led by future Mr. Basketball and University of Maine standout Troy Barnies.

“I still think we had one of the best teams in the state that year,” Adams said.

Hampden took an early lead, and managed to take Barnies out of the game. It seemed the Broncos got to every rebound and every loose ball, Adams said.

“I remember that shirt collar getting tighter and tighter and thinking ‘Oh gosh, it can’t end this way,’ ” Adams said.

It did. The final score was Hampden 57, Edward Little 39. The top-seeded Red Eddies’ saw their tournament run end in about an hour and a half.

“That’s high school sports,” Adams said. “It’s nothing to be embarrassed about. It happens. Hampden was a very good team that year.”

If there’s a bright side to the loss, it’s that Adams and his coaching staff remember it very well. When the Red Eddies, the No. 7 seed this year, take on No. 2 Lewiston on Saturday at the Augusta Civic Center, they can speak with authority about how anything can happen come tourney time.

There are 16 regional tournaments about to begin in Maine high school basketball That’s 32 teams that are either a one or a two seed. There’s a good chance one of them, maybe more, sees a tournament run expected to last until at least next weekend end suddenly and shockingly.

There’s an upset brewing.

Travis Lazarczyk — 861-9242

tlazarczyk@centralmaine.com