There is a very strong likelihood that Sen. Olympia Snowe is not lying awake nights worrying about the fact that she already has two announced candidates saying they will run against her in the Republican primary next year.
There is also a very strong likelihood that she has plenty of reason, at least so far, to be secure in her rest.
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The candidates, Scott D’Amboise of Lisbon Falls and Andrew Ian Dodge of Harpswell, both claim links to the tea party movement in Maine, although that amorphous group has many claimants to its leadership.
True, the tea party nationally has had its successes since the grass-roots group first arose two years ago as a national vehicle to protest deficit spending and promote a small-government agenda.
Two GOP senators, Bob Bennett of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, lost primaries to tea party-backed candidates, although Murkowski won election with write-in votes. The movement had mixed success elsewhere, with losses in Delaware and Nevada balanced with wins for movement-backed candidates in Utah, Florida, Kentucky and several other states.
But in Maine, the movement generally supported party nominee Gov. LePage and other Republicans, and both he and the party proved successful in November’s voting, with control of the governor’s office and both houses of the Legislature switching from Democratic to Republican control.
And if the notoriously bottom-up tea party movement can be said to have a leader, the governor is the most obvious candidate for the post — and he says he’s strongly backing Sen. Snowe for re-election, based both on long ties of family friendship and party loyalty.
Another reason to think she might be secure in the primary is that, while she has been willing to cross party lines in the past, her votes with the new Congress have been staunchly party-line. While they may not always remain that way, so far she seems to be making a statement on the Senate floor that will help counteract any future criticisms that she is a RINO — a “Republican In Name Only.”
Two things could change this equation: One is that she could choose not to run, and the other is that a Republican of significant stature could decide to oppose her. But every sign so far is that she intends to seek a fourth Senate term, and the list of potential big-name challengers remains blank.
If Snowe is to face a serious challenge in 2012, it will be up to the Democrats in November, not the tea party in June, to find a candidate to do it.
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