What can we all do to help ensure recovery from the Great Recession? Buy Spanish goods, eat lots of Spain’s orange clementines and quaff their wines.
Not really, but it speaks to one of the greatest challenges for the global economy this year.
Sustaining a painfully slow economic recovery requires that Spain not become the next country to seek a financial bailout from its European Union counterparts. Even the perception of instability could trigger a domino effect extending economic misery across Europe and the United States.
That news was delivered this week by Professor Charles Colgan of the Muskie School of Public Service (usm.maine.edu/muskie), who was cautiously optimistic in his annual economic forecast while salting his remarks with caveats such as Spain’s financial stability.
There are many positive trends that suggest hiring will begin to gain momentum. Corporate profits are up, people are working more hours per week, household debt continues to fall, and consumer spending is showing signs of life.
In addition to Spain’s well-being, however, other events and decisions have to align to ensure that all these moving parts are taking us in a positive direction.
Reflecting on the past year, Colgan suggested that more stimulus funding from Washington would have made a greater impact but that it was politically unacceptable in light of the nation’s annual deficit spending and our growing national debt.
With stimulus funds scheduled to run out this year, the Federal Reserve Bank has taken steps to make more money available for business and consumer lending. It is another huge stimulus package delivered through the side door of monetary policy. In addition, Congress extended the Bush-era tax cuts and waived payroll taxes to pump even more money into the economy to stimulate employment.
In Maine, Colgan said, we had it better in 2010 than the nation as a whole when it came to employment. Sadly, many people without jobs have stopped looking. But Colgan predicted that for those continuing the job hunt, job growth will be positive in professional and business services, education, health care, and leisure and hospitality.
Based on Colgan’s prediction, however, we have to provide a skilled work force through a strong university and community college system — otherwise, those businesses either will have to bring new employees to Maine or move closer to markets with skilled labor.
Colgan also expanded on the quandary of addressing the federal debt. If we avoid making the tough decisions, he said, in just 15 years we will be able to afford only three federal programs: health care, Social Security and defense. The rest of the money will be spent to pay interest to our lenders.
According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation (pgpf.org), this year our federal government will spend $1.2 trillion more than it receives in revenue.
Such deficit spending has created a federal debt of nearly $14 trillion. This is money borrowed by our government, and 46 percent of that money is owed to foreign lenders such as China.
If we do not change how we fund and run our government, we not only jeopardize the delivery of government services but threaten the well-being of the private sector, which relies on public infrastructure to conduct business and create jobs.
Like it or not, roads, airports, rail lines and waste management are just some of the tax-funded services that enable free enterprise to function effectively in the world’s largest economy.
A wild card in all these scenarios, says Colgan, is the possibility of natural disasters caused by climate change. He suggests that Katrina-magnitude hurricanes are likely to occur with greater frequency, yet there is no line item in the federal budget for rebuilding. If the federal government is called upon every three or four years to restore major coastal cities, all bets are off for our fiscal health.
He did not even mention the manmade disasters of war and terrorism.
Colgan confidently made a point of saying our debt problem is solvable. Our federal tax burden is as low as it was when Dwight Eisenhower was president in 1952, and our tax burden in Maine is the same as it was in 1970.
The challenge, he said, will be to achieve some level of fairness without impairing private investment. Fair or not, we have to act soon and decisively.
So, here’s the dilemma we all must consider, and we must make our wishes known before decisions are made in Washington and Augusta: Do we raise taxes, adjust entitlement programs and cut spending or do we continue demanding more government services while threatening politicians with defeat at the polls if they tamper with the status quo?
Let me suggest you peel yourself a ripe orange clementine, pour yourself a glass of Spanish sangria and spend a little time listening to Colgan’s presentation. You’ll bring greater stability to the global economy, get your daily dose of vitamin C and become better informed before you make up your mind and take action.
What do you think and what are you going to do about it?
Tony Payne is a lifelong resident of Maine who is active in business, civic and political affairs. He may be reached at:
tpayne@midmaine.com
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