A storm of the magnitude of hurricane Katrina is unlikely to hit Maine, according to a Westbrook meteorologist.
“It is an almost nonexistent threat,” said Marc Mailhot, a meteorologist who works with the Cumberland and York county emergency management agencies.
Shortly before it hit New Orleans, Katrina was rated as a category 5 storm, the most powerful on the scale, with winds of 156 mph or higher. Mailhot said the worst case scenario for Maine would be a category 3 hurricane, which would bring winds between 111 and 130 mph.
A powerful storm is not a likely threat this far north because of the ocean temperature here, Mailhot said. He said the ocean around Maine is simply too cold to allow a storm the size and power of Katrina to sustain itself.
“We would have to have some extraordinary circumstances for a category 5 hurricane to get up here,” he said. “We don’t have the sea surface temperatures to support a category 5 storm.”
While storms the size of Katrina are not likely to hit this area, that doesn’t mean Maine is immune from hurricanes. In fact, Mailhot said New England has been extremely fortunate to have not been recently hit by a major hurricane. He said the last category 3 hurricane to hit Maine was hurricane Edna. That storm hit on Sept. 11, 1954, dumping seven inches of rain and killing 11 people in Maine.
There have been some smaller storms to hit Maine in the 50 years since Edna, but nothing of that magnitude. However, Mailhot said just because a major hurricane hasn’t struck in so long doesn’t mean it will never happen again. “We are so far overdue for a hurricane in New England it’s not even funny,” said Mailhot.
One lesson Mainers should take from Katrina is to pay attention to weather forecasts and to heed the warnings of local emergency management officials, Mailhot said. He said if a major storm is heading toward Maine, forecasters should be able to give folks plenty of warning about the storm. In addition, Mailhot said the most important thing to do in the face of a hurricane is to listen to local emergency personnel, especially when they are issuing evacuation orders.
“If local emergency management officials tell you to get out, don’t second guess them. They know what they are doing,” Mailhot said.
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