A convicted sex offender from Knox County, who is scheduled to be released this October, has told prison officials he will strike again as soon as he’s on the outside.

The Department of Corrections has asked the court to amend his conditions of probation based on that admission and the man’s history. The court date is set for Sept. 22, and he is scheduled to be released on Oct. 5.

He is one of four high-risk and 18 medium-high-risk sex offenders out of a population of 108 who are finishing their time this year or early next and are being released back to the community.

“We have to release people who are sex offenders” and have done their time, said DOC Commissioner Martin Magnusson. “We know there are victims just waiting to happen.”

The DOC is now mapping where sex offenders released from prison are likely to live when they leave, based on where they came from. It is part of a DOC plan to put their limited probation and community-based resources where they’re most needed while the Legislature deals with what changes it wants to make in sex offender laws.

From March of this year until March of 2006, 108 sex offenders will be or have been released back into the community. Based on DOC assessments, four are at a high risk of re-offending; 18 are at a medium-high risk; 2 medium; 41 medium to low; and 43 low.

They include seven in Cumberland County; one in Hancock; six in Knox; one in Lincoln; four in Sagadahoc; and four in Waldo.

“It’s not a high number,” said DOC Associate Commissioner Denise Lord, in terms of the highest risk offenders being released from prison. The problem is the state has no ability to treat them any differently despite knowing they are likely to commit a sexual crime again.

Lord said it is a misconception that all sex offenders re-offend. People who have done time for incest, for example, have a fairly low recidivism rate. Pedophiles and serial rapists, however, are likely to repeat their crime.

Checking in

The most powerful tool the state has, right now, is keeping an eye on known sex offenders through the probation system.

Lord said a few of the worst get no probation, but instead get maximum prison time. So when they’re done with their time, they’re done, unless they attack again. Most, however, are required to check in, at least for a while.

The state has six probation officers who are specially trained to deal with sex offenders and will keep watch on the high or moderate-to-high risk offenders being released.

Mike Simoneau is one of those special probation officers. He works in the Lewiston-Auburn area. The other five also are located in the most populated areas of the state – Portland, Bangor, Augusta, Waterville and York County. With a caseload of 36, he can’t really travel much more than 15 miles outside of the city.

“The rural areas are really hurt when it comes to supervision of sex offenders,” he said, because offenders there are assigned to regular probation officers, who sometimes have 100 or more people to watch.

The sex offender probation officers keep a much closer eye on ex-offenders, including surprise home visits, surveillance, visits with neighbors, girlfriends and employers.

“Any aspect of their life, we are usually involved in some shape or fashion,” he said.

If they violate any condition of their probation – and for many that includes no contact with children – they are back in trouble with the law.

Simoneau said he has had only one man commit a sex crime while on probation in the last four and a half years. That is the typical experience of his fellow special officers, he said.

“These people live in a secret world,” he said. “Once they’re exposed and a lot of people are watching, and I’m showing up on Sunday morning or Tuesday night, or I’m showing up at their girlfriend’s house – they’re always on edge, which is a good thing.”

“It keeps them on their toes and keeps them honest,” he said – at least until their probation is finished.

Simoneau said most of the people he deals with are on six- and 10-year probations. Under law just passed last year, however, the worst offenders can now get up to 18 years probation for felonies like rape.

And there is the sex offender registry, which is supposed to let the community know and keep an eye out for sex offenders in its midst.

The registry continues to be controversial for what it does and doesn’t do. Often residents are angered when they find out on their own – without being officially notified by police – that a person is on the sex offender registry. Sign-up is required even for low-risk offenders.

When the community does find out, either through official notification or word-of-mouth, it often results in the sex offender moving on and in the worst cases underground – meaning he no longer notifies the state of his whereabouts.

“Just because we notify, everybody doesn’t live happily ever after,” Commissioner Magnusson said.

Other options

Sue Hall Dreher is the director of the Sexual Assault Support Services of Midcoast Maine in Brunswick, which provides services and a hot line for victims of sexual assault in Lincoln, Sagadahoc and parts of Cumberland County.

She thinks there has to be a multi-faceted approach to the problem of sexual assault and abuse, especially since most assaults are never reported and nobody gets prosecuted.

For the worst known offenders, “I do think there needs to be other options within the menu if you will,” in terms of keeping those most likely to repeat their crime under confinement, Dreher said.

Maine has no such options, right now, but other states use involuntary commitment of those categorized as “sexually violent predators” to facilities run by departments of mental health or corrections. According to information put together by the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, 17 states, including Massachusetts here in the Northeast, have involuntary commitment programs.

Associate Commissioner Lord questions whether such programs, which typically have treatment programs associated with them, are worth their high cost. “The research is not sufficiently compelling that treatment for repeat offenders is effective,” she said.

Straight incarceration, “without the expensive treatment environment,” could be the right answer for the worst sexual abusers, Lord said, but that is a huge public policy issue that has to be debated outside the DOC.

Protecting yourself

Dreher said the most important thing for the public to realize is most sexual assaults are committed not by registered sexual offenders, but by people who haven’t been caught yet and may never be reported. And, most are people who know their eventual victims.

“We should be aware and be paying attention to registered offenders in our communities,” she said. “But while we’re looking to our right, we’re not seeing the behaviors to our left. We’re not looking to our left at all the people, who because of their behavior, should be brought into question.”

“The majority of sexual assaults happen by people we know. Not strangers,” she said. And, the majority of victims don’t report, which makes the registered sexual offenders a small part of the overall problem.

Simoneau, who is a guest lecturer with Dreher when she teaches classes on sexual assault at the University, said sex offenders patiently “groom” their child victims.

“They start dating somebody, usually a single woman with kids. It’s very common. Some of these people are very good at conning. Offenders spend three our four years of gaining complete trust before they start abusing,” he said.

Dreher’s best advice: Trust your gut. While society tells us not to be rude, sometimes you simply have to remove yourself or child from a person or situation “if something’s not right.”

If an adult is spending too much time with your child, she said, that should raise an alarm bell.

“Pedophiles are looking for vulnerable families; vulnerable children. They’re looking for ways to spend time alone with a child, basically starting to cultivate a relationship,” she said. “If your guts are telling you something’s wrong, trust your intuition.”