Here are some truly frightening poll numbers: According to CNN, only 37% of Americans think that Donald Trump broke the law with his alleged hush money payments to adult-film star Stormy Daniels, while 76% think that politics played a role in the decision to bring charges against him. Yet a 60% majority approves of his indictment.
Among independents, the numbers are even more stark: Only 31% say Trump’s actions were illegal, and 76% believe politics played a role in the decision to prosecute him in New York. Yet 62% approve of it.
Think of what that means: These Americans, including a clear majority of the independent voters who will likely choose the next president, believe that Trump committed no crime, and that the justice system is being weaponized against him – and they are perfectly fine with it.
Even if you hate Trump, that is terrifying.
Trump’s critics believe he represents an existential threat to our democratic institutions. Well, the institution that is the critical foundation of our entire democracy is the rule of law. Yet some on the left are perfectly willing to undermine the rule of law with a political prosecution, clearly to stop him from winning back the White House. By using Trump’s serial breaking of our democratic norms to justify this unprecedented norm-breaking, his opponents become exactly what they condemn. They seem willing to burn down our system to save it. This poses as great a threat to our democracy as anything they fear Trump might do if he were to regain power.
But scary as these poll numbers are for our democracy, they should also be a wake-up call for Republicans. Because if you wanted proof that Trump has made himself irreparably toxic with swing voters who will choose the next president, this is it.
Trump’s indictment is creating a rallying effect around the former president. On March 30, the day his indictment was announced, 46% of GOP primary voters supported Trump, according to the RealClearPolitics average; since the indictment, Trump’s support has increased to around 52%. Meanwhile, during that same period, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has dropped from 30 to 25% in the RCP average. So, the gap between Trump and his closest rival has nearly doubled, from 16 to 27 percentage points. Before charges were handed up, a majority of Republican primary voters said they wanted someone else as their party’s standard-bearer. Now a majority backs Trump.
The problem is Republican primary voters will not decide the next election. There is every reason to expect that, once again, the outcome will be determined by a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of swing states. And those voters disproportionately dislike Trump. According to a new NPR-Marist poll, only 37% of independents approve of Trump, and 64% don’t want Trump to be president again. These voters don’t want to see Trump reelected; they want to see him prosecuted.
Why? Because for these voters, “MAGA” no longer means all the great Trump policies that a majority of Americans approved of while he was in office. It means election denial, the refusal to preside over a peaceful transition and a relentless campaign of political revenge against those who refused to back his false stolen election claims.
If Trump had spent the past two years reminding those voters of his accomplishments in office – the first comprehensive tax reform in three decades, low inflation, rising wages, energy independence, securing the border with Mexico, destroying the Islamic State caliphate, taking out Iran’s terrorist mastermind Qasem Soleimani, four Arab-Israeli peace treaties, Operation Warp Speed (the list goes on) – and comparing his record to the serial disasters President Biden has unleashed, he’d be cruising to a historic comeback victory.
Instead, Trump has spent the past two years pursuing personal grievances and alienating the very people he needs to win back the presidency – so much so that many are willing to see him prosecuted for a crime they believe he did not commit. It is nothing new to see the left breaking norms to go after Trump. What is new is seeing how many Americans seem willing to go along with it to prevent Trump from reaching the Oval Office again. That’s a message Republicans should pause to absorb before they make Trump their nominee in 2024.
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